320
FXUS64 KLIX 240604
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
- THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT
HEAT THREATS THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
STILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING
IF POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
UPPER RIDGE IS PRETTY MUCH PARKED BETWEEN EL PASO AND PHOENIX,
WITH NO INDICATIONS THAT IT IS GOING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK. BASIC
FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVES HEADED TOWARD THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST.
ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING INTERSTATE 40 THIS MORNING, AND
IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WHEN WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD (LIKELY AN MCS) IN MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING A FAIRLY HEALTHY COLD POOL. WILL NOT GO WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN IF WE REACH CRITERIA (108F),
RELIEF SHOULD COME FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST OR ALL CONVECTION SHOULD
BE GONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000,
THERE'LL BE AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE NO QUARREL WITH SPC'S DAY 1
SLIGHT RISK FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA. CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TODAY,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO AN ISSUE, PER WPC'S DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO). THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVERCOMING DRAINAGE CAPABILITIES, WHICH WOULD
MAINLY BE A PROBLEM IN URBAN AREAS. OVERALL, IT'S BEEN PRETTY DRY
THIS MONTH.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS AT PRESENT THAT TODAY'S STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IF WE'RE TO SEE
ANOTHER MCS CROSS THE AREA, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY, WITH THE CURRENT NUMBERS SUPPORTING THURSDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A CUMULATIVE EFFECT,
SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
IF THERE'S A BRIGHT SIDE TO THE WETTER PATTERN, IT'S THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. CURRENT HEAT INDEX FORECASTS
WOULD INDICATE OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY TODAY, WE
SHOULDN'T BE NEEDING ANY ADVISORIES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE OVERALL EAST COAST LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT,
LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERAL WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO HIGHS - ONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT
TO THE SAME EXTENT AS PREVIOUS DAYS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT/GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONCERNING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
HIGH... LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THERE IS A NON-NEGLIGIBLE
CHANCE THAT THE HIGH MIGHT TRY TO INCH EASTWARD A BIT TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
ISOLATED TSRA NEAR THE LA-MS STATE LINE NECESSITATES A MENTION FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS IN THE KMCB AND KHDC FORECASTS. VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WHILE RESTRICTIONS IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE MVFR, THERE'S CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IF DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
STORM. WILL USE TEMPO FOR TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT, SURROUNDED
BY PROB30. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W THEN SW TO
START THE WEEK. A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MID WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN
AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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