538
FXUS64 KLIX 081043
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
543 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW,
BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY.
- PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A VERY WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT TO
KEEP PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND
THE MEAN TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A
NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF THE PWAT WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE NORTH
WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL BE GREATEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE LOWER OVERALL POP OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10/12 AND HIGHER POP
OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE BOTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS GREATEST. A REVIEW OF
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY NORTH OF
I-12 WHERE SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO ANY DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING. STILL, EVEN THE DEEPEST UPDRAFTS AND
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD SEE WINDS STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY
AND TOMORROW AT 40 TO 50 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AT 10 TO 15 MPH EACH DAY, SO THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
LOWER. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR, BUT
THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL TO 1 TO 2
INCHES IN MOST AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT MOST, A FEW MORE FLOOD
PRONE SPOTS COULD SEE SOME MINOR PONDING OF WATER AS THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL PEAK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH DAYS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SHIFTING
PATTERN AND SLIDE BACK OVER THE AREA. PWATS WILL SURGE TO AROUND
2 TO 2.1 INCHES, OR BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE, FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE WITH SBCAPE FALLING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG, INCREASING
VORTICITY AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S
EACH DAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FIRE UP OFFSHORE
EACH DAY AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS, AND POP
OF 60 TO 80 PERCENT IS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS MORE
FAVORED RAINY PATTERN. FORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, SO THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE THE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND CONTINUED HIGH
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, HAS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FLOODING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO STREET AND
UNDERPASS FLOODING THAT COULD CLOSE SOME ROADS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO ADVISORY
LEVELS DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, THE RAINFALL WILL HELP
LIMIT THE HEAT THREAT AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COOLS
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEAK HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING AND LUNCH HOURS BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LONG TERM
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN MUCH
LIKE THE SHORT TERN FORECAST WITH DECENT DAILY RAIN CHANCES BUT THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SET UP AS WE MOVE
INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCES ARE ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES
AND THAT IS 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY SO NOT BAD HONESTLY. IN ADDITION THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND OVERALL THEY ALL AGREE WE SHOULD
SEE THE RAIN POTENTIAL BEGIN TO TICK DOWN BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TAKES BACK OVER. NBM STILL LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE OVERZEALOUS WITH THE POPS SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
ATLEAST LOWER BY 10-20% COMPARED TO SATURDAY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP POPS A GOOD BIT FROM WHERE THE NBM IS WE
WILL JUST LEAVE THE POPS WHERE THEY ARE AT.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY
WE WILL STILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE WEAKNESS ALOFT. MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE HIGHLY ABUNDANT WITH PWS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.1". WITH
MOISTURE READILY AVAILABLE AND THE LACK OF SUPPRESSION ALOFT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION BEING
DRIVEN DIURNALLY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS INLAND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE MARINE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO HEAT UP SATURDAY WE WILL LIKELY START TO
SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND THEN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL DICTATE.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE. WE WILL STILL SEE STORMS DEVELOP BUT WILL IT BE MORE
NUMEROUS IMPACTING MOST OF THE AREA OR WILL IT START TO TAKE A STEP
BACK TO MORE SCATTERED. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THAT IS WHERE
THE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE COMING INTO PLAY. IF THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FASTER LOOK FOR RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN
SATURDAY HOWEVER IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWER THEN WE MAY ONLY SEE
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE. BY MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z
AND 23Z. PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS OVER
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR BRIEF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LASTING 30 TO
60 MINUTES AT MOST. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, AND
REDUCED VISIBILTIES OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR RANGE WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CONCERNS, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE GULF. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL PUSH
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND CREATE
CHOPPY SEAS. AS THE WAVE SLIDES TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND FALL BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS THE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF EXPANDS TO THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 1 TO 2
FEET AS THE WINDS DECREASE.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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