021
FXUS64 KLIX 081732
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW, BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
DAY.
- PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. TROUGHS WERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND OVER MONTANA. AN EASTERLY WAVE WAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OFF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS MORNING'S LIX SOUNDING REMAINED VERY MOIST WITH A 2.12
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. NOON TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION WERE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO
HOLD THE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE
MAY NOT BE MUCH ORGANIZATION IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE UPPER QUARTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WILL JUST ABOUT
GUARANTEE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY, A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE PROGRESSIVE IN THAT DIRECTION. IF THERE'S AN AREA THAT MIGHT
ESCAPE CONVECTION ON ANY DAY, IT WOULD BE AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDORS TOMORROW.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED,
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO (BUT PROBABLY NOT
THROUGH) THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION,
AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHAT, BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 90 TO 95 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. AS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, AND THAT'S PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T CHANGE MUCH FROM
DAY TO DAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVEL THAT WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES (108F).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK EASTWARD, AGAIN, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WON'T BE ALL DAY WASHOUTS, BUT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD ANTICIPATE BEING INTERRUPTED, AT A MINIMUM, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY, IT'LL
BE CENTERED NEAR NASHVILLE AT THAT TIME.
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90, BUT WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION (AND PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS), MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES, AND SIMILAR HIGHS PROBABLY CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY. WOULD NOTE THAT IF UPPER RIDGE WOULD BUILD A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
BUT WON'T MESS WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ISSUANCE TIME, BUT CONVECTION WAS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN KASD AND KGPT, MOVING WESTWARD. WILL
CARRY TEMPO FOR KASD EARLY ON, WITH PROB30 AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE GENERALLY
MVFR CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY IFR OR LOWER. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE, BUT THE ONLY LOCATION IT IS
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME IS KMCB AND THAT'S NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PRIOR
TO 18Z WEDNESDAY AT KHUM/KNEW/KMSY, BUT BETTER THREAT IS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT UNSURE IT'LL VERIFY, AS WE'RE NOT SEEING OBSERVATIONS
VERIFYING IT RIGHT NOW. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEFLY HIGHER WAVES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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