841
FXUS64 KLIX 090618
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
118 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW, BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
DAY.
- PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A BROAD AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL EXERT MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS. PWATS WILL FALL TO NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. THIS DROP IN PWATS WILL
BE ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND THE
RESULTANT DRYING AND WARMING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE END
RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH LESS THAN 10
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FROM I-10/12 NORTHWARD TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 90S BENEATH THIS
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS, BUT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO PLUNGE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN CHECK AT AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PWATS NEAR AVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. POP OF
30 TO 40 PERCENT IS IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, ANY
DEEPER UPDRAFTS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH.
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS TURN MORE FAVORABLE
FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE IN RELATION TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. PWATS WILL
SURGE TO BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VORTICITY AND
FORCING ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY AND
SBCAPE CLIMBS TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, POP OF 60 TO 80 PERCENT IS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND CONTINUED HIGH RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS WHERE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FLOODING WILL
BE IN PLACE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS
FLOODING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO STREET AND UNDERPASS FLOODING
THAT COULD CLOSE SOME ROADS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AND
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW 105 EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CONTINENTAL US WHILE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST WEAKENS. WE'LL STILL SEE DAILY POPUP STORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE STILL A BIT IFFY, THE NBM
STILL SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT HIGH ON POPS. MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK
TO BE AROUND THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (~1.9 IN PW) SO STORMS
WILL GENERALLY HAVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE'S PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO THEY WILL BE THE PULSE
STORMS THAT GROW TALL AND BIG OFF SEABREEZES/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT
LOSE SUPPORT JUST AS QUICKLY. BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS
ON COLLAPSING STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SUMMER. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP PLACES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POPUP STORMS LIKELY TO BRING MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLING RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL START OFF
FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY COASTAL LOUISIANA TODAY. KHUM IS THE ONLY
TERMINAL WITH PROB30 WORDING FROM 14Z TO 20Z FOR CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FOR THIS
TERMINAL AT AN HOUR OR LESS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FALLING TO
MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR RANGE AND WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE GULF. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND CREATE CHOPPY SEAS. AS THE WAVE SLIDES
TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND FALL BACK TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AS THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXPANDS TO THE WEST. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL TO 1 TO 2 FEET AS THE WINDS DECREASE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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