825
FXUS64 KLIX 100602
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO STREET FLOODING AND
OVERFLOWING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE DEVELOPMENT A BROAD, BUT FAIRLY WEAK, MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
SOUTH TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AS
NOTED BY PWATS RANGING FROM THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO THE DAILY MAX
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, OR WELL OVER 2 INCHES, AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT
AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
WILL SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL AVERAGE 5 KNOTS
TODAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THUS, A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5,
OR MARGINAL RISK, OF FLOODING RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, STORM MOTION
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IF ANY TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME
REGION OCCURS. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY, STORM MOTION WILL ALSO DROP BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO A LACK OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT LIMITING HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING OUT NEAR 105.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST AND TAKEN A FIRM HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL BRING
US BACK TO THE SUMMER PATTERN OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND 30-50% POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THESE HIGHS TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SUMMER AND COMBINED WITH
THE HUMIDITY WILL PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE, SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME I HAVE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT
HEADLINES. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE RAIN IS IT HELPS PUT A BIT OF A
DAMPER ON THE TEMPERATURE RISE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE STORMY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. COASTAL TERMINALS LIKE
GPT, HUM, MSY, AND NEW WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY THESE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND PROB30 OR TEMPO WORDING IS IN
PLACE FROM 10-12Z TO 00-02Z, OR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS RISK. FURTHER INLAND, AT MCB, ASD, HDC, AND
BTR, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE A BIT DELAYED AND WILL RUN
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH 00Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME OUT THE EXACT
PERIOD THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS THERE IS NO LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM TO HONE IN ON FOR DEVELOPMENT, THUS THE EXTENDED
WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS USING PROB30 WORDING. MVFR AND IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 2 TO 5 MILES, GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS TO THE WEST TOMORROW, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS WE MOVE INTO
NEXT WEEK, AND THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY, PEAKING IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, AND THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS, AND LIGHTNING
CONCERNS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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