739
FXUS64 KLIX 111826
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
126 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO STREET
FLOODING AND OVERFLOWING OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS RETURN FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. PW VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES INLAND TO OVER 2 INCHES
CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALLY APPROACHING 2.4 INCHES, COMBINED WITH
WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND AMPLE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST CWA, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY
FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AS THATS HOW THE
VERTICAL MOISTURE FIELD IS ORIENTED. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES, AND LOCALIZED RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE AMOUNTS
ANYWHERE NEAR THAT HIGH, BUT REPEATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES COULD
QUICKLY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES IN A SMALL AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR STREET FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. THE VERY MOIST PROFILES ARGUE AGAINST A CLASSIC INVERTED-
V/HIGH-DCAPE ENVIRONMENT, SO ORGANIZED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL IS
LOW, THOUGH A STRONGER PULSE STORM MAY STILL PRODUCE A LOCALLY GUSTY
WET MICROBURST. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE IS SLOW TO DEPART, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS
ORGANIZED THAN TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION WEAKENS, BUT PW
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RENEWED STREET OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS PULLING FARTHER EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISE FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS EXPANDING
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD MARK THE START OF A TRANSITION TOWARD
A MORE TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN, WITH STORMS
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE SEA BREEZE, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, AND
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TRENDING UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN ALABAMA REGION MONDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED WITH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN THE WARMER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST AND
RELATIVELY DRIEST DAYS AS THE 597-598DM RIDGE REMAINS STRONGEST
OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES LARGELY IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE
RANGE. THATS MOSTLY BELOW THE 108 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THERE'S NOT MUCH ROOM TO SPARE. A FEW LOCALIZED READINGS AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 108 CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, IF
TEMPERATURES REACH THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED. CONVERSELY, GREATER MIXING OR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM
WOULD KNOCK APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN QUICKLY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AROUND THE URBAN/COASTAL
CORRIDOR WILL ALSO PROVIDE ONLY MODEST OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO THEN BE COMING THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH OR AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE FLORIDA /
WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING, WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND A CORRESPONDING EASING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THAT FEATURE REMAIN LESS CERTAIN, HOWEVER,
AND A SLOWER EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE HOTTER AND RELATIVELY DRIER
RIDGE-DOMINATED PATTERN TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM ~2500' CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE
LIFTING IN THE COMING HOUR OR SO. RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS MIXED IN. PROB30 GROUPS WERE CONTINUED AT ALL
TERMINALS SINCE THERE'S NOT REALLY A SPECIFIC REGION WITH MORE/LESS
COVERAGE. SHOULD START TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY DWINDLE AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN, LOWER CEILINGS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND LOCALLY WET GROUND FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL WILL FAVOR AT LEAST
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG, PARTICULARLY AT KMCB AND
OTHER INLAND TERMINALS AND IN AREAS RECEIVING APPRECIABLE RAIN
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW, AS LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR POSSIBLE ROUGHLY IN THE 08-13Z PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
AFTER SUNRISE.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
HAS DISSIPATED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS WHICH LENDS TO MINIMAL WAVES/SEAS. TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BUT WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE
CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
AND EVEN LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
2 FEET OR LESS RANGE. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY, PEAKING IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, AND
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS, AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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