970
FXUS64 KLIX 130556
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1256 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS RETURN FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A BROAD AND DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS TODAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BOTH A
WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE UP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. A WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY COLLIDE OVER THIS REGION, AND INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON
THE COAST WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BE THE AREA TO MOST LIKELY SEE A DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL
AS DEEPER UPDRAFTS EXPERIENCE SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DCAPE
VALUES OF 1100 TO 1200 J/KG SUPPORT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR
TODAY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW, PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EVEN
FURTHER. AT MOST, SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND GENERALLY
WEAK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FORECAST. FORTUNATELY, DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WILL START TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ON EAST FACING SHORES, MAINLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SEEN ON MONDAY, THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI IN VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE.
THE SEABREEZE WILL SURGE FURTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK
OF THE STRONGER EASTERLIES, SO CONVECTION MAY EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS METRO NEW ORLEANS AND THE RIVER PARISHES. FORTUNATELY,
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE
STRONG CAP IN PLACE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND THE LOWER 90S
ALONG THE COAST. NO CHANGE TO HEAT INDICES EITHER AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO MIX DOWN WITH READINGS PEAKING BETWEEN 100 AND 105.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
(599DM) NEAR HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, REACHING
FLORIDA FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT POINT, THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY. IT'S BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS
THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF GIVE THE SAME GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND, THEN THE 18Z GFS DIVERGES FROM THAT SOLUTION. THE 12Z
RUNS EVENTUALLY TAKE THE UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE THE 18Z GFS NEVER BRINGS IT WEST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS IT UP AND LIFTS IT NORTHEAST.
THIS GIVES QUITE A BIT OF CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. ANYTHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE, AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS USUALLY DO CHANGE IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER LAND WOULD BE
SURPRISING IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE. FOR
SATURDAY (AND BEYOND), WILL LIVE WITH THE NBM SOLUTION FOR NOW,
WHILE WAITING TO SEE WHICH TREND HOLDS UP WITH THE UPPER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD SEE MULTIPLE NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, THE NUMBERS IN THE
GUIDANCE NOW WOULD STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WE
APPROACH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY TERMINALS WITH A
HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE OF STORMS FIRING UP ARE GPT AND HUM, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. MOST TERMINALS WILL ONLY SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE DAY AROUND 3500 FEET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP BENIGN
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL POP UP IN THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES, BUT THESE IMPACTS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED EACH DAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WILL
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
BROAD LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND THE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE HIGHER
WINDS AND INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO IMPACT EAST FACING SHORELINES OVER THIS
PERIOD.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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