384
FXUS64 KLIX 291050
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A
CONCERN MAINLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
DRY AIR COMING IN THE BACK DOOR THIS MORNING. ONE CAN EASILY SEE
THIS WHEN MOVING NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS DEW PT TEMPS FALL FROM
AROUND 70F INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SURGE BEFORE
WE GET INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. THE LOW LEVEL FLUX
WILL OCCUR FIRST AND SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO FILTER IN BY LATE WED
NIGHT, DEPENDING WHICH GUIDANCE IS LOOKED AT. SOME, LIKE THE GFS,
HAVE THIS SFC MOISTURE COMING IN THU. AT SOME POINT THOUGH, THIS
WILL OCCUR AND IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
STRAY STORM AS WE WILL STILL BE CAPPED BY THE MID/UPPER RIDGING.
THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN WITH A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE AND THIS SHOULD BE QUITE RAPIDLY DONE AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MORE
STORM ACTIVITY AND THE AREA WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS COMES
INLAND IS WHERE THE WETTEST AND STORMIEST AREA WILL BE OBVIOUSLY.
AT THE MOMENT, THAT IS A HARDER PROBLEM TO SOLVE SINCE THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS AXIS WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SHIFTY. THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN SOME GLOBALL SUITES BUT
THE SOONEST TIME FRAME WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST, IF NOT ALL, MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BE WED, ON EITHER THE 7A OR 7P MODEL RUNS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON SEP 28
2026
SEASONABLE DEW POINTS AND PWATS OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A RETURN FLOW REGIME
ADVECTING GULF AIR INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE CONDITIONING PROCESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING POPS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SENDING PWATS
TOWARD DAILY RECORD MAXIMUMS (>2.3 INCHES). THIS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD, DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE LARGEST CAVEAT TO A HIGHER THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
THE CONTINUED TREND OF A STRONGER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT IS DELIVERING AMPLE LIFT OVER DEEP TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO REMAINS STUCK
AND WEAKENS UNDER THE EXPAND RIDGING. THE ONLY SCENARIO TO WATCH FOR
SOME RESIDUAL LIFT WILL BE WITH THE LIFTING WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RISK WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT'S FAVORED THAT ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND THE WETTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK
AS WE DON'T SEE A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE CLEARING OUT THIS MOISTURE
FIELD JUST YET. HOWEVER, A STRONG EAST CONUS TROUGH PATTERN IS BEING
HINTED AT IN THE LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT WILL FAVOR A MORE
NOTABLE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST REAL FALL FRONT GOING INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SE TODAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN
RISE FURTHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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