471
FXUS64 KLIX 010652
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
152 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A THREAT. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, GENERALLY BELOW 700MB THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP PUSH PWATS UP TO AROUND THE MEDIAN FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, AND DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AND DRYING OF THE UPPER LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS IS EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WHERE
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5.0C/KM AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN THE AREAS OF GREATEST
MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE IN THE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL, AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST
COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER AS OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRIES
TO MOVE INLAND ON THE BACK OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
POLO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
PWATS TO THE DAILY MAX FOR BOTH DAYS. BOTH DAYS WILL FEEL VERY
MUGGY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS SIT IN THE MID
70S. AN OVERALL WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BE GREATEST ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A MORE
FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE LOW
FORMS, THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA WILL
INTENSIFY AND THIS WILL FAVOR MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT STRETCHING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL LOUISIANA, INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO
AREA. THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST POP, NEAR 100 PERCENT, DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE TWO DAYS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SOME ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING UP AND OVER THE COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
ON SUNDAY, A FEW ELEVATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM, BUT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE THREAT IS NEAR ZERO DUE TO A LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND WIND SHEAR. ANY STORMS WILL BE LOWER TOPPED AND
WEAK AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A WEAKLY FORCED
AND HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENTS ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
UPPER RIDGES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND NEAR LAS VEGAS
SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO EAST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH MOST PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO COASTAL
AREAS, OR POTENTIALLY ENTIRELY OFFSHORE. SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD RETURN RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT NOT UNCOMFORTABLY SO. HIGHS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 70, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND 17Z TO 24Z FOR MORE INLAND TERMINALS, AND
PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE TO HANDLE THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. IF ANY
STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL, BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ELEVATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT CREATING SOME CHOPPY
CONDITIONS IN THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN
SLIP THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO RISE BACK TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4
TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE CREATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CHOPPY SEAS. SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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