740
FXUS64 KLIX 011815
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
115 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE CELLS SHOULD DIE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A THREAT. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
I HAVE GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE
SEEING TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND DROP INTO THE SEASONABLE, EARLY
FALL RANGE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE
PARTLY DUE TO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. I GUESS WE CAN'T WIN THEM ALL.
THE CURRENT SET UP HAS US STUCK BETWEEN A LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND A HIGH TO OUR EAST. REGIONAL WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH, AND BRINGING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL CARRY TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. BETWEEN
THESE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES WE ARE GOING TO SEE MAXIMUM AND PERHAPS
RECORD VALUES OF PW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ON THE ORDER OF 2.6
INCHES.
WHILE WE ARE CERTAIN OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, I
DON'T BELIEVE THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE WAY THE
SYSTEMS ARE MOVING, THERE WILL BE LULLS IN THE RAIN. HOWEVER, WE
CAN'T SAY WHEN AND WHERE THOSE LULLS WILL OCCUR. LIKEWISE ON THE
HEAVY SIDE, THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE PERIODS AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. SO, WHILE WE ARE FORECASTING TOTAL AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES THERE COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6+ INCH RANGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE
LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. THE RAINFALL INTENSITY IS ALSO AN
ISSUE. WITH THE LULLS AND SURGES, WE COULD SEE INSTANTANEOUS RATES
THAT ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS FLOODING
WOULD BE AN IMPACT IN AREAS OF SLOW DRAINAGE SUCH AS UNDERPASSES.
ALSO, ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GIVEN STORM THERE MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LIGHTNING.
ALONG WITH THE DISCUSSION OF HAZARDS, I SHOULD MENTION THAT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TORNADOES,
HAIL, AND HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ON THE TABLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEES THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PUSHED INTO THE GULF AND BECOMING MOSTLY
STATIONARY AND A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
SET US UP WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GIVE US AROUND A
30% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAINS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S, BUT IT WILL BE VERY HUMID.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
ALL TERMINALS VFR. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE ACCOUNTED FOR WITH PROB30 CODING. THROUGH THE PERIOD CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO AND TRANSITS THE
AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ELEVATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AT OR JUST OVER 15
KNOTS TONIGHT CREATING SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS IN THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DROP BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP THROUGH THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO RISE BACK TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE CREATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CHOPPY SEAS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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