464
FXUS64 KLIX 030705
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
205 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS THREAT. REMEMBER, TURN
AROUND DON'T DROWN!
- LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDE RANGES AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SHORE
LINES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACK OF AN PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP PWATS NEAR THE DAILY MAX OR AROUND 2.5 TO
2.6 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS THE REGION BECOMES EMBEDDED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
REVIEW OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING INDICATES THE FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THEN
EXTEND WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA OVER THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE
ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI, WHERE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD
BE IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING, AND THIS IS WHERE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 10
AM TODAY. FURTHER TO THE WEST, RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE MORE IN
THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR METRO NEW ORLEANS AND COASTAL
LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS, EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR SOME LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND. MOVING NORTH OF THE FRONT, A
SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL WILL BE IN PLACE AS FORCING WILL BE
LARGELY ISENTROPIC IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LOWER CONVECTIVE THREAT AND MORE OF A LONG DURATION LIGHT TO
MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THESE OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER COVERAGE EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DENSITY DRIVEN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN THE REGION AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK OF AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL PUSH THE FRONT
SOMEWHERE JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW, ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING FROM A PREVAILING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. POP WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD WITH POP OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY
AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP A BIT WITH THE INTRODUCING OF DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH READINGS RISING BACK TO AVERAGE
IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL EASILY DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10 WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
I-10. THE DAYS AND NIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL FOR
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO START THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TROUGHING WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF.
THE MAIN QUESTION AT THAT POINT IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR WILL
HAVE INFILTRATED THE CWA AT THAT TIME. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD AT LEAST BE RID OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE BY THAT POINT,
BUT IT MAY TAKE A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
DRY OUT. ANY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S NEXT WEEK, AND IF CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGHS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE. THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURES WOULDN'T RULE OUT 90 DEGREE HIGHS AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 2 TO 5 MILES, MVFR CEILINGS OF 1500 TO
2500 FEET, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR THESE IMPACTS WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z
AND 20Z AT THE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS OF MSY, HUM, NEW, ASD, HDC,
AND GPT WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER TIME OF 17Z TO 23Z FOR BTR AND MCB.
PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT, PREVAILING MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 3000 FEET. AFTER 00Z, LOW
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM BENEATH A WEAK INVERSION FORMED FROM
THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE, AND PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS
FROM CEILINGS OF 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL TAKE HOLD NEARLY ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. ONLY GPT AND ASD SHOULD REMAIN JUST MIXED ENOUGH TO
KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 1000 FEET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL FORM IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. VERY CHOPPY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE LAKES AND SOUNDS
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THEN
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARM WATERS. ANOTHER
LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ064-
070-076-078-091-093-095-097.
GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
MSZ086>088.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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