698
FXUS64 KLIX 031809
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
109 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MS
COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES REGARDING THIS THREAT. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!
- TIDE RANGES ARE DECREASING, BUT COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL A
BORDERLINE THREAT FOR COASTAL MS. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS, SO A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL HANCOCK, HARRISON, AND JACKSON
COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8AM TOMORROW MORNING. AGAIN,
SINCE THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE DARK, BE
VERY CAUTIOUS DRIVING THROUGH LOW AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WE ARE GETTING INTO THE MEAT OF THE WEEKEND RAIN. WE HAVE SOME
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES WITH INTENSITIES UP TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR. STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING OF 2ISH INCHES OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN AREA AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER COASTAL MS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK, HARRISON, AND JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.
THE OUTLOOK BEYOND MONDAY CALLS FOR SOME DRYING ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. OVERALL RAIN TIMING AND LOCATION NEXT
WEEK WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GULF, BUT WE STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP A BIT
WITH THE INTRODUCING OF DRIER MID- LEVEL AIR OVER NORTHERN AREAS
WITH READINGS RISING BACK TO AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS, LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL EASILY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10
WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10. THE DAYS AND
NIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA TO START THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
IN THE LONG RANGE, TROUGHING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PLACE DRIER AIR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
COASTAL AREAS WILL STILL SEE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN, DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR THE CURRENT FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT SOME TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. SO, AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER MIDWEEK WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. THROUGHT
EXTENDED PERIOD WE ARE EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE
80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THROUGH THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL RUN THE GAMUT FROM VFR TO IFR.
CURRENTLY, TERMINALS TO THE NORTH ARE VFR AND TO THE SOUTH MVFR TO
IFR. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, RAIN WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTH
AND WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD DRIVING MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL FORM
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. VERY CHOPPY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE LAKES AND
SOUNDS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO THEN SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE BACK
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARM
WATERS. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5
TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ083>088.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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