872
FXUS64 KLIX 041750
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHTER RAIN WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF
I-55, BUT NOT PRESENT THREATS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. EAST OF
I-55 THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN, AN ADDITIONAL 1 -
3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES REGARDING
THIS THREAT. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
- COASTAL WATER LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO INCH THEIR WAY UP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY
LATER IN THE WEEK. S0, AGAIN, CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WE ARE FINALLY GETTING OUT OF THE HEAVY RAINS. DEFINITELY STILL
HAVE A LOT OF THE AREA COVERED WITH RAIN AND ARE STILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY THE FRONT HANGING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THAT FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTH ONLY SLOWLY AND IT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW BEFORE IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF. WITH
THE GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
THE LONGEST DURATION AND HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE MS COASTAL
COUNTIES. WE HAVE A FLOOD ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE
HALF-CWA EAST OF I-55.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ON INTO THE GULF WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DRIER AIR AND LACK OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. NEARER THE FRONT, WE STILL EXPECT POPS IN THE 30-50%
RANGE AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THOSE RAIN
CHANCES MAY EXIST JUST ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF RAIN MAY ALSO CARRY SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME HIGHS AND WE SEE SOME NEAR-90 TEMPS BY MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS
INTO THURSDAY SHOULD ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THAT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS BLAST OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, UNFORTUNATELY, LOOKS TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE MOST OR
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE AGAIN TO NEARLY DAILY MAX VALUES (2.3 INCHES).
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO NOT BACK OFF THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A BIT AND WON'T RULE OUT A
90 DEGREE HIGH OR TWO ON THURSDAY. A BIT OF A COOL-OFF COMES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THAT MAY TREND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS, CLOSER TO 80 THAN 90.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW CIGS DUE TO A STRATUS DECK DRIVE MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD TREND TOWARD MVFR. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IMPACTING VIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAINFALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACCENTUATING THE RAIN IN THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER TODAY AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARM
WATERS. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5
TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WELL OFFSHORE AND
REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ039-058-064-070-071-
076>082-087-089>093-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ070-071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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