335
FXUS64 KLIX 042348
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- COASTAL WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCH THEIR WAY UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY LATER
IN THE WEEK. SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WE ARE FINALLY GETTING OUT OF THE HEAVY RAINS. DEFINITELY STILL
HAVE A LOT OF THE AREA COVERED WITH RAIN AND ARE STILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY THE FRONT HANGING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THAT FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTH ONLY SLOWLY AND IT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW BEFORE IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF. WITH
THE GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
THE LONGEST DURATION AND HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE MS COASTAL
COUNTIES. WE HAVE A FLOOD WATCH RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE
HALF-CWA EAST OF I-55.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ON INTO THE GULF WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DRIER AIR AND LACK OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. NEARER THE FRONT, WE STILL EXPECT POPS IN THE 30-50%
RANGE AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THOSE RAIN
CHANCES MAY EXIST JUST ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF RAIN MAY ALSO CARRY SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME HIGHS AND WE SEE SOME NEAR-90 TEMPS BY MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS
INTO THURSDAY SHOULD ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THAT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS BLAST OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, UNFORTUNATELY, LOOKS TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE MOST OR
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE AGAIN TO NEARLY DAILY MAX VALUES (2.3 INCHES).
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO NOT BACK OFF THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A BIT AND WON'T RULE OUT A
90 DEGREE HIGH OR TWO ON THURSDAY. A BIT OF A COOL-OFF COMES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THAT MAY TREND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS, CLOSER TO 80 THAN 90.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE TIME, FROM VFR TO IFR. CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS, BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR ACROSS MOST OR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING,
WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH
BEYOND 06Z, WITH MAINLY PROB30 USED BEYOND THAT POINT. DO EXPECT
MOST TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY TO VFR BY SUNSET. WILL CARRY PROB30 IN THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER, AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND
TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SHRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACCENTUATING THE RAIN IN THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER TODAY AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WARM
WATERS. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5
TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WELL OFFSHORE AND
REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ039-058-064-070-
071-076>082-087-089>093-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS
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