425
FXUS64 KLIX 050531
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1231 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD.
- WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE BEGINNING
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
- THE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING BY MIDWEEK AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE
EVENING, WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THAT TROUGH WERE OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, COASTAL LOUISIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEAR INTERSTATE 10.
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNSET,
AND THE FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINED RATHER MOIST DURING THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2.3 TO 2.5 RANGE, AT THE TOP OF THE CHART FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.
THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF, WITH DRYING FROM
THE NORTH. LIKELY TO STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE DIMINISHED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING BELOW 2 INCHES
BY EVENING. PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH SUNSHINE BEFORE TUESDAY, BUT
WON'T SEE AS MUCH RAIN, EITHER. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 80S.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AROUND
TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH OVER TEXAS. SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THE TEXAS TROUGH PICKING UP THE DISTURBANCE AND CARRYING IT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. ON THE
OTHER HAND, SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED THE TEXAS
TROUGH MISSING THE DISTURBANCE, WITH THE DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF. WHILE BOTH SCENARIOS ARE FAIRLY DRY LOCALLY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WOULD
BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL ACCEPT THE NBM
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE 2 DAYS, BUT THERE COULD BE SHIFTS IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE ACTUAL SCENARIO BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
DEPENDING ON THE WIND DIRECTION, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD BECOME
AN ISSUE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK. HOPEFULLY, THIS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
CLEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
ON THURSDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE TROUGHING OVER TEXAS, EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THAT'S PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FAMILIES. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
IS HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE TROUGH PICKS UP THIS FEATURE AND PUSHES IT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS TOWARD MOBILE NEXT WEEKEND. NHC CURRENTLY
CARRYING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 7
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN SHOWING THE
TEXAS TROUGH DOESN'T PICK UP THE FEATURE, KEEPING IT IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OF THE OTHER INTERNATIONAL
MODELS AND RECENT SETS OF NBM GUIDANCE HAVE TENDED TOWARD A GFS
BASED SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE WIND FIELDS. I'D NOTE
THAT A SYSTEM MOVING AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS DEPICTION FREQUENTLY
ENDS UP WITH A RATHER LOPSIDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK AND VERY LITTLE TO THE
LEFT. CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET, AND
COULD BE SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING, NOW IS NOT THE TIME
TO FOCUS ON SPECIFICS. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW SOLUTIONS QUICKER THAN
THE GFS IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM. JUST TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FAMILIES, THERE'S
SOME VARIANCE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, EVEN
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW
THE 2 SYSTEMS INTERACT (OR DON'T). WILL LET THE NBM NUMBERS RIDE,
BUT UNDERSTAND THAT THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE, FOR NOW, IS LOWER THAN
WE'D LIKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
ONLY A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING AROUND THE
LOCAL FORECAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A RANGE OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT PRESENT, RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z. COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT A FEW TERMINALS, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL FORM IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
OVER THE WARM WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SOUTHWEST
GULF DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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