101
FXUS64 KLIX 161841
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
141 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE IMPACTS.
- FIRST IMPACT IS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA SATURDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOLLOWS THE GALE WARNING AND MARINE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA. AS
THIS FRONT MOVES IN WE WILL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN THE WINDS, OUT
OF THE NORTH, WITH MANY AREAS GUSTING UP TO 30-35 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3PM TOMORROW FOR THIS REASON. THESE
WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE OVER LAND SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND, A SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOW ~30% FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY WINDS AND DRY AIR, THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR FIRST REAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR! BY THE TIME PEOPLE ARE
WAKING UP SATURDAY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER
50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING, IT
MAY BE TIME TO BREAK OUT THE GUMBO POTS! SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH MANY NORTHERN AREAS ALL THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL
FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BY MONDAY WE WILL
START TO SEE HIGHS CREEP BACK TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO START A
WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK. FIRE
WEATHER COULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
RH VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW, EVEN DOWN INTO THE ~20% RANGE, THOUGH
WINDS OVER LAND WON'T BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS, NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE, FOLLOWING TODAY'S FRONT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING SOME VERY
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NEAR 30KTS. WINDS DON'T LOOK TO LIGHTEN UP UNTIL LATER
SATURDAY. NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY GALES AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY EASE A BIT OVER
SOME OF THE PROTECTED WATERS SATURDAY GALE HEADLINES ARE REPLACED
WITH ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE TO AROUND 20KT LATE SUNDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-
575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-080>082.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-
577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
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