312
FXUS64 KLIX 170502
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA TODAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN A WHILE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD EASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORIES TO DROP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY WITH GALE WARNINGS TO FOLLOW BY LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER WATER AREAS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES VALID INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO EASE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID WEEK FOR ALL HEADLINES TO DROP, WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE DRY CONDITIONS ON TOP OF DROUGHT AND MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS
HEADLINE WILL BE DROPPED THIS EVENING AS WIND SPEEDS EASE, THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PROMOTING CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD, JUST NOT AS RAPID. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE SLOW EASE
IN WIND SPEEDS. THE VERY COMFORTABLE DRY CONDITIONS WILL STAY
WITH US FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM. THESE CONDITIONS ARE VERY
NORMAL FOR OCTOBER AND IS OUR TRANSITION FROM A MORE TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT TO A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ENVIRONMENT, BASICALLY
SUMMER TO WINTER TRANSITION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE LONG TERM FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK APPEARS
TO BE A DRY ONE ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHERN FLOW AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS EXTREMELY DRY. WITH THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS STILL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING. IN
ADDITION, THINK RH VALUES WILL BE HELD DOWN TOO WITH STRONG MIXING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS DO OCCUR, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT MAY GET GOING. THAT SAID, ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE INTERIOR DUE TO MORE LACKLUSTER
WINDS, A FEW FIRES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE CARDS, ESPECIALLY AS THE
DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MS AND NORTH OF I10/12 IN LOUISIANA
CONTINUES TO WORSEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I10/12 DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND
60S ELSEWHERE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY ISSUE
WITH THIS PACKAGE WHICH WILL BE TIMED FOR SHIFTS AND SHEAR VALUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
EASE A BIT OVER SOME OF THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING, GALE
HEADLINES MAY BE REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE TO AROUND
20KT LATE SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW LOWERING OF EASTERLY WIND
SPEED WILL OCCUR INTO MID WEEK WHERE ALL HEADLINES MAY FINALLY BE
DROPPED.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ529-
531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-080>082.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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