817
FXUS64 KLIX 181042
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, SO SPREAD
WOULD NOT BE AS RAPID.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER WATER AREAS KEEPING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES VALID INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER TO SPEAK OF, AND I CAN ALWAYS SAY
THIS IS A GOOD THING SINCE OUR AREA GETS MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF
BAD WEATHER. OCTOBER IS LIKE THIS THOUGH. VERY COMFORTABLE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
MOST PROMINENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE MAP. TEMPS WILL HEAT UP
AS WE MOVE TOWARD MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
MUCH OF THE SAME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. LOOKING AT
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETTING UP BETWEEN TWO CLOSED UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS IN AN OMEGA-LIKE CONFIGURATION, ONE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND THE OTHER ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PUTS OUR AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE,
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER AND
POTENTIALLY BRING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE RIDGE HANGING AROUND LONGER AND
CONTINUE SUPPRESSING ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW,
THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WARMING TREND FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES BENEATH THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND BATON ROUGE
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S DUE TO THE
MARINE INFLUENCE. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE, EXPECT SOME RATHER LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND SOUTHSHORE.
BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES INFLUENCING THE AREA. GIVEN THE OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, THERE ISN'T MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THING
TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
AND WHETHER IT BEGINS WEAKENING THE RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT THE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. (JZ)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND TURN MORE EASTERLY TODAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, SO ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO
EARLY MONDAY MAINLY FOR OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY EASE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH CAUTION HEADLINES POSSIBLY
REMAINING INTO THAT PERIOD.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ529-531-
533.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-
534>536-541-543-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ531-533.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ534>536-
541-543-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ553-554-570-
572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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