286
FXUS64 KLIX 182324
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. AS EXPECTED,
MORNING LOWS THIS MORNING WERE BELOW WHAT WAS ADVERTISED IN THE
OPERATIONAL NBM AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, HAVE ONCE
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE FORECAST DOWNWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE THAN THE OPERATIONAL NBM.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING,
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
9P MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING - IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, AND SHOULD BE SOLIDLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SHUNTED SOUTHWARD, THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING WITH LOWS
CONTINUING TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR OUR AREA, WITH SOME PLACES
SEEING MORE THAN A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MORNING LOWS
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS.
A SECONDARY EFFECT OF THE WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IS THAT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MANY PLACES
EXPERIENCING MINIMUM DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF NEAR OR BELOW
35% BY WEDNESDAY (NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THESE VALUES EARLIER IN
THE WEEK AS WELL). WHILE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAKES FOR
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, IT WILL ALSO RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME FIRE DANGER - ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY FIRE SPREAD WILL BE THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO
THE FIRST HALF. MODEL FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARING 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, IT DOESN'T CURRENTLY LOOK
LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL FALL. MOST OF THE DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 21-25 ARE IN THE 89-91 DEGREE RANGE, AND
FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY 3+ DEGREES BELOW THE SITE- SPECIFIC
RECORDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS COULD GET INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE WITH DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, SO ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN NECESSARY ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINE EXTENSIONS POSSIBLE. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK HEADLINES CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EASING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ553-554.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DM
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