468
FXUS64 KLIX 191738
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
FIRES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST
COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE SHORT TERM IS MOSTLY GOING TO BE A TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
FORECAST AS POPS REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM A NEARBY UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP BRING WINDS ALONG THE COAST DOWN AT OR BELOW
10KTS. ALSO, CONSIDERING THE OVERALL TRENDS CONTINUED TO BRING
RH/DEW POINTS DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM AS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LACKING WINDS, A FEW FIRES
WOULDN'T BE IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE DROUGHT AND THE LOWEST RH
VALUES EXIST. OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER
RIDGING EVENTUALLY CENTERS CLOSER TO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NEAR
0 PERCENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST CLOSER TO OUR REGION AGAIN HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED, WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ISSUE AGAIN FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TIGHTENS
UP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EVEN WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT, OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, SO ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EASING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS. WITH
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY
SWELL DEVELOPS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ553-554-570-
572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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