584
FXUS64 KLIX 201053
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
553 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 550 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
FIRES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS.
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY QUIET AND GENERALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND TX COAST WILL SLIDE WEST AND CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE XIS EXTENDING NORTH
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH WE WILL MOVE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION AND REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLACK OFF LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS BUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
LEADING TO EASTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
THUS NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. LL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB WITH H925
TEMPS AROUND 18C BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS AND LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO RH VALUES DROPPING A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY AND THUS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LUCKILY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TO NEAR SAVANNAH TO THE CENTRAL GULF, AND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WITH RIDGING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS, CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF ON MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT WIND FORECAST
DOESN'T SHOW ANY INDICATIONS OF WINDS BECOMING PRIMARILY ONSHORE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN,
WHICH IS REFLECTED BY FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
BELOW 1 INCH, AND GENERALLY AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE OR LESS,
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WARMING TREND FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES BENEATH THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 70S (COASTAL AREAS) TO
MID 80S (INLAND) ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND BATON ROUGE POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE UPPER END THOUGH, AS THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT
BATON ROUGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK IS 89. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, EXPECT SOME RATHER LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTHSHORE. WON'T RULE
OUT A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. /RW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THAT SAID THERE MAY BE A FEW TIMES WHERE
LOW CLOUDS COULD TEMPORARILY MOVE OVERHEAD BUT EVEN THOSE WILL BE
FEW TO SCT WITH CIGS WILL LIKELY ABOVE 3K. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK CONTINUING THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY RELAXING WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EASING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY SWELL
DEVELOPS. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ551-553-
554-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ553-554-
570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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