931
FXUS64 KLIX 211039
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
539 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FIRES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VERY QUIET FORECAST IN HAND WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES
AND SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE MID LVL RIDGING THAT WAS
DOMINATING THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN TX. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND SHIFT EAST A TOUCH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NNE FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX THROUGH MN AND JUST
INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
AS IT SLIDES EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY TO
THE RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY
LEADING TO NNE WINDS ALOFT. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN, LOOK FOR WARMING
TEMPS AND NO RAIN. AT THE SFC BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST STATES TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING ANY RECOVERY IN
THE LL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THIS
THERE IS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THAT WILL BE COVERED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.
OVERALL THE NBM LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY ADJUSTED A LITTLE LOWER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GIVEN WITH IT HAD THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SO WITH THAT
VERY LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE LATEST NBM FORECAST.
TODAY'S IS MUCH BETTER THAN WHAT IT HAD THE PREVIOUS DAY AND IT MUCH
MORE IN LINE WITH THE THINKING AND THE LL TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA. HIGHS YESTERDAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE LL TEMPS FOR TODAY THE HIGHS SHOULD BE
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND THAT IS WHAT THE NBM HAS INSTEAD OF
THE MID 80S IT DID HAVE 24 HOURS EARLIER. THE NBM MAY STILL BE A
TOUCH WARM TOMORROW BUT IT IS ATLEAST CLOSER TO CURRENT THINKING SO
NO TO ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM THE NBM. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60 THANKS TO
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND KNOW RECOVERY IN DEWPOINTS. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ON SUNDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH ANOTHER
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SKINNY RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW YORK CITY WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY, WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COLORADO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WE WON'T HAVE ANY DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGIC MEAN FOR LATE OCTOBER (1.1 INCHES) ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MEAN A BIT STRONGER
WINDS OVER LAND AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY SO
OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TREND TO DRIFT BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO AROUND SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE NORMAL. NOT
A GREAT DEAL OF DAY TO DAY VARIANCE IN HIGHS OR LOWS. /RW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN VFR STATUS HOWEVER, SOME VERY
SHALLOW BR/FG MAY TRY TO IMPACT ONE OR TWO SITES AS WE COOL DOWN
TO THE DEWPOINT. NBG WHICH IS NOT ONE OF OUR TAF TERMINALS, IS ON
THE WESTBANK WHICH LIKE ASD AND PQL HAS SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE
POTENTIAL AND CAN COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY (IT IS ALREADY 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MSY AND 15 BELOW NEW) IS SHOWING 4SM BR AND CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ASD OR PQL POSSIBLY SEEING SHALLOW/GROUND FOG
LEADING TO 4-5SM BR BUT BOTH MAY NEED THE TEMPERATURE TO DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES TO GET THAT TO OCCUR OTHERWISE VFR STATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK CONTINUING THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY RELAXING WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN NECESSARY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH TIME AS WINDS EASE BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW,
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP THIS WEEKEND WITH HEADLINES LIKELY OVER
THE PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS. /CAB/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS.
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THINGS OUT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREA TODAY AND
THURSDAY. LUCKILY 20FT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND-DRIVEN
FIRE SPREAD. THAT SAID, THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS DOES NOT MEAN
WE ARE WITHOUT A FIRE CONCERN.
THE FUELS AND DROUGHT INDICATORS HELP HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERNS. RECENT
ERC-BASED FIRE DANGER CLASS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HIGH. THESE VALUES ALONE DO NOT SUGGEST EXTREME CONDITIONS, BUT
KBDI VALUES ARE COMMONLY IN THE 600-700 RANGE WITH A FEW STATIONS
ALREADY APPROACHING 750. THIS POINTS TO CONSIDERABLE DRYING BEYOND
JUST THE FINE SURFACE FUELS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ALSO DEPICTS
ABNORMALLY DRY (DO) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DROUGHT GENERALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PARISHES. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY WILL HELP THE FINE FUELS TEMPORARILY, BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO
REVERSE THE ACCUMULATED DRYNESS WITHOUT RAINFALL.
NUMEROUS LOCAL BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS LA AND MS. WITHIN
OUR AREA THIS INCLUDES EAST FELICIANA, ST. HELENA, TANGIPAHOA, AND
WASHINGTON PARISHES ALONG WITH WILKINSON, AMITE, AND PIKE COUNTIES.
OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED, AND ALL LOCAL RESTRICTIONS
FOLLOWED.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE WINDS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENT COULD BRING A GREATER SPREAD CONCERN
IF STRONGER WINDS OVERLAP THE LOW AFTERNOON RH. SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY MAY OFFSET THIS, SO THE OVERLAP WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN
EITHER PARAMETER ALONE. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT THE CONCERN TO RETURN
EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND RH FALLS. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
FIRE WEATHER...CAB
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