755
FXUS64 KLIX 211841
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FIRES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE MILD SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION LIMITING AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWFA. WITH DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE
TO MIX DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WINDS AT LEAST EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE LACKLUSTER,
WHICH SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT FIRE SPREAD...BUT THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND FUELS WILL LEAD TO EASY FIRE IGNITION (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION). OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER COMFORTABLE...TO SOMEWHAT
COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL LOWER DRAINAGE AREAS. NBM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OFF ON THE MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWERING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY, NBM WAS A BIT
OVERZEALOUS EARLY THIS WEEK AS WE HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BELOW
GUIDANCE HERE AS WELL. SIMILARLY KEPT MAXTS ON THE LOWER SIDE
WHILE LOWERING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS WELL. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM SEE FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT BELOW. THIS
WILL DO AN EFFECTIVE WAY OF CHARACTERIZING WHAT TO ANTICIPATE
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY, BUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS MONDAY
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL MAKE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS A BIT MORE LIMITED. ALOFT, THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A SYNOPTIC CHANGE AS A MODEST H5 TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY GOING INTO TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
AGAIN KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE OZARKS, BUT GLOBALS ACTUALLY HAVE THIS
FEATURE STALLING NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AS THE TROUGH
FLATTENS. ALL THAT SAID, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED (NEAR
ZERO), AT LEAST OVER LANDBASED ZONES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OFFSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT OTHERWISE THE CONTINUED
DRY TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE BENIGN WITH TIME AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY SWELL
DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEADLINES LIKELY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS. (FRYE)
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS.
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THINGS OUT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREA TODAY AND
THURSDAY. LUCKILY 20FT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND-DRIVEN
FIRE SPREAD. THAT SAID, THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS DOES NOT MEAN
WE ARE WITHOUT A FIRE CONCERN.
THE FUELS AND DROUGHT INDICATORS HELP HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERNS. RECENT
ERC-BASED FIRE DANGER CLASS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HIGH. THESE VALUES ALONE DO NOT SUGGEST EXTREME CONDITIONS, BUT
KBDI VALUES ARE COMMONLY IN THE 600-700 RANGE WITH A FEW STATIONS
ALREADY APPROACHING 750. THIS POINTS TO CONSIDERABLE DRYING BEYOND
JUST THE FINE SURFACE FUELS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ALSO DEPICTS
ABNORMALLY DRY (DO) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DROUGHT GENERALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PARISHES. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY WILL HELP THE FINE FUELS TEMPORARILY, BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO
REVERSE THE ACCUMULATED DRYNESS WITHOUT RAINFALL.
NUMEROUS LOCAL BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS LA AND MS. WITHIN
OUR AREA THIS INCLUDES EAST FELICIANA, ST. HELENA, TANGIPAHOA, AND
WASHINGTON PARISHES ALONG WITH WILKINSON, AMITE, AND PIKE COUNTIES.
OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED, AND ALL LOCAL RESTRICTIONS
FOLLOWED.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE WINDS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENT COULD BRING A GREATER SPREAD CONCERN
IF STRONGER WINDS OVERLAP THE LOW AFTERNOON RH. SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY MAY OFFSET THIS, SO THE OVERLAP WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN
EITHER PARAMETER ALONE. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT THE CONCERN TO RETURN
EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND RH FALLS. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
FIRE WEATHER...CAB
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