382
FXUS64 KLIX 222327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AND LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. THE RAPID SPREAD
OF WILD FIRES IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE WEAK
WIND, HOWEVER THE CURRENT AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
ABUNDANT FUELS DO NOT ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED (SPSLIX) TO COVER THIS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE UPPER AIR SYNOPTIC SET HAS THE CENTRAL US UNDER A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK WITH LOUISIANA UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT
MORE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES
BASICALLY AT ZERO. LOOKING AT THE ULM MESONET, 2-INCH SOIL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS BELOW 10% WITH 30-DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND 50% OF EXPECTED TOTALS. BESIDES THE IMPACT ON
AGRICULTURE, FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS ARE FEELING THE STRAIN AS FUELS
ARE DRY AND DORMANT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS A LACK OF WIND, WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CAUSING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD, INCREASING OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AS WELL. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE OFFSHORE, BUT NBM90 DOES SHOW GUSTS OF 20 MPH FARTHER INLAND.
WITH HOW SENSITIVE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE, THE TRENDS IN WIND
SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH
OF I-10 AND MID 50S SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK, OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
CHANGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PULLED
OUT TO SEA AND THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. AS THE
EASTERN LOW MOVES FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIG
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING FORWARD TO
SOME OR ANY RAIN, YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER, AS A HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALMOST IMMEDIATELY BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. ENSEMBLE TABLES PROG THIS HIGH AS SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT, AS
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK, PWAT VALUES
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH. ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DURING THE EXPECTED PASSAGE SHOW A DRY ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE, FURTHER POINTING TO LITTLE RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, MORE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION, WHICH WILL KEEP OUR MINRH VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30%.
BEHIND THE FRONT, ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
ALL TERMINALS AT VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. STARTING ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THIS WEEKEND FOR THE OPEN WATERS. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLY
WINDS, WE COULD SEE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, WITH P-ETSS SHOWING
HIGH TIDE VALUES CLOSE TO 2 FEET ABOVE MHHW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FIRE WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONTINUES. MINRH VALUES ARE A CONCERN, WITH VALUES
NEAR OR BELOW 30%. FUELS ARE ALSO VERY DRY WITH KBDI VALUES HIGHER
THAN 600, WITH SOME AREAS WELL INTO THE 700S. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR IS LIGHT WINDS, WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
IF WINDS START TO TREND HIGHER, THEN FIRE HEADLINES WILL BE
LIKELY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NRS
LONG TERM....NRS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NRS
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