875
FXUS64 KLIX 230714
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
214 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL
THROUGH TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK WIND, HOWEVER THE CURRENT AND
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT FUELS DO NOT ALLEVIATE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED (SPSLIX) TO COVER THIS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LATEST FORECAST REASONING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE WAITING TILL NEXT MONTH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
RAIN AND THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
MID LVL PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED, THE RIDGE IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA
CENTERED OVER THE TX/MEXICO BORDER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
NORTH JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALL THE WAY INTO CANADA. THE RIDGE
IS RATHER LARGE AND AMPLIFIED PRETTY MUCH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS BETWEEN THE TWO CONTINENTAL DIVIDES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND REMAINING
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A DEEP L/W
TROUGH DIGS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ALONG WOULD BASICALLY
SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH PWS GENERALLY
REMAINING AROUND 0.5" THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS JUST NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN.
AT THE SFC BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS AND THIS
SFC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE IT SLIDES SOUTH BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THEN THE DELMARVA REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CAUSE LL TEMPS TO FALL A DEGREE OR TWO
BUT IT WILL ALSO SEND US RECYCLED DRY AIR AND WITH THE EFFICIENT
MIXING WE HAVE SEEN AND LIKELY SEE AGAIN DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WILL STILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OVER THE INLAND AREAS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES
WILL BE.
BIGGEST DEVIATION FROM THE NBM IS DROPPING DEWPOINTS BY USING A
BLEND OF THE NBM/NBM10/NBM25 TODAY AND THEN THE NBM05/NBM10/NBM25
FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS ACTUALLY DON'T LOOK THAT BAD SOME VERY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THAT. THE OTHER CHANGE FROM THE NBM ARE THE MORNING
LOWS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHERE WE USED A MIX OF THE
NBM/NBM25 AND MOS.
ALL DETAILS CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK HAS US FIRMLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WITH RIDGING THAT EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES THE RIDGING TRANSITS EASTWARD AND BY MIDWEEK WE
ARE ON THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT STILL SEEING
MORE IMPACTS AND CONTROL FROM THE MORE TROPICAL FLOW, AS OPPOSED TO
NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MATCHED
BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SO, WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, OVERALL WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. PWS IN THE COLUMN WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
THESE VALUES ARE STATISTICALLY IN THE LOWEST QUARTILE AND NEARING
THE DRIEST 10% OF ALL DATA. THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD AND MAYBE EVEN BEYOND THAT. OCTOBER IS TYPICALLY OUR DRIEST
MONTH, BUT THIS IS A LITTLE RIDICULOUS.
ALL THIS LEADS TO CONTINUED DISCUSSION OF FIRE WEATHER RISK. MINIMUM
RH'S FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30%S, AT BEST, FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND 50%S FOR THE SOUTH. THE ONLY CONSOLATION WE HAVE
WITH RESPECT TO ELEVATED FIRE THREAT IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MINIMAL,
LESS THAN 10MPH. THAT SAID, WE KNOW THERE ARE BURN BANS IN MANY OF
OUR PARISHES AND COUNTIES AND WE EXPECT CONTINUED DISCUSSION
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
BEYOND THE CONTINUED DRY-NESS, WE ARE LOOKING AT CLEAR TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. /DSS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TODAY AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER, THAT SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW AND
THEN THE DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
THESE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE PROTECTED,
NEAR SHORE WATERS, AND SOUNDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED 15-
20KT WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND WITH THAT THERE IS NOW A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THEN
EXPANDING TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN, MAUREPAS,
AND SALVADOR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THESE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC KEEPING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OUT
OF THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON RH VALUES FELL TO AS LOW AS THE LOWER
20S TO LOWER 30S YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE EFFICIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY EXPECT SIMILAR RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH VALUES
LIKELY RANGING FROM 20-25% ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE ADJACENT
FLORIDA PARISHES. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST FEW DAYS LUCKILY
20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND-DRIVEN SPREAD. THAT SAID, THE
FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT WE CAN STILL HAVE PROBLEMS WITHOUT
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY EFFICIENT AND PROLONGED
DAYTIME DRYING THAT HAS OCCURRED THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE FUEL INDICATORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CONCERN. THE OCTOBER
21 ERC-BASED FIRE DANGER MAP STILL DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS. RECENT
KBDI VALUES HAVE COMMONLY BEEN IN THE 600-700 RANGE ACROSS MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH SOME HIGHER READINGS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 750. THE LATEST AVAILABLE DROUGHT MONITOR DEPICTS D0 TO
D2 CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PARISHES. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL PROVIDE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN FINE FUEL MOISTURE, BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO
REVERSE THE ACCUMULATED DRYNESS WITHOUT RAINFALL.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL MS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LA COAST WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH HIGHER RH. THIS MAKES THE OVERLAP OF THE STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWEST AFTERNOON RH THE MAIN QUESTION. ANY GREATER
MIXING OR LESS MOISTURE RECOVERY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD
INCREASE THE CONCERN ALONG THE COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES
NOT EXPLICITLY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
THIS WEEKEND.
BURN BANS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS LA
AND MS. LATEST ADDITIONS TO THE BURN BAN IS POINTE COUPEE AND ST
TAMMANY PARISHES. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTS THE NEAR-
TERM CONCERN, AND OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED. EVEN WHERE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, AN ESCAPED FIRE CAN STILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
DRY VEGETATION. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ532-534>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ534>536-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ553-554-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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