873
FXUS65 KLKN 152201
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
201 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE FALL PATTERN CONTINUES AS A DYNAMIC WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTIUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THRU TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY BRINGNIG ACCUMULATING SNOW. NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER MOVES
IN MONDAY BEFORE QUIETER WEATHER UNDER A WARMING TREND ARRIVE BY
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER LONG WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST THRU
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SNOW DISSIPATING TONIGHT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BULK OF THE NEW SNOWFALL WILL
BE FINISHED BY SUNRISE SATURDAY THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
THRU SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE GREATEST OVER
THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS, RUBY MOUNTAINS/E. HUMBOLDT RANGE, AND THE
TOIYABE RANGE WITH 6 TO 10+ INCHES EXPECTED. PASS ROUTES, HIGHER
VALLEYS, AND THE MID SLOPES BEGINNING AROUND 5500/6000 FEET AND
HIGHER CAN EXPECT 1 TO 6 INCHES DEPENDING ON LOCALE. LOWER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY SEE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES PRESENT THRU TONIGHT LIKELY CREATE
INSTANCES OF BLOWING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PASSES
WHERE GREATER SNOW TOTALS ARE OBSERVED. WINDS EASE THRU SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF PROGRESSES EAST. TROF AXIS TO BE
SITUATED OVER UTAH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE SW CONUS AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF THE ENCROACHING TROUGH
WILL DRAG THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ADVECT INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH WITH EACH MODEL RUN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DECREASES. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF
I-80. BY MONDAY PM, HOWEVER, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS WHITE PINE AND EXTREME NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ENDING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM
HAVE DECREASED WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND THAT TREND CONTINUES WITH
VALLEY FLOORS IN CENTRAL NEVADA RECEIVING A DUSTING OF SNOW WHILE
NORTH OF I-80 VALLEYS WILL RECEIVED 0.5-2 INCHES WITH HIGHER
TOTALS CLOSER TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN HUMBOLDT
AND ELKO COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW PACK.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD, WINDY DAY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK IN THE UPSTREAM
FLOW OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
SW CONUS BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HUMBOLDT
AND ELKO COUNTIES LATE WEEK, THOUGH STORM TOTALS FOR BOTH QPF AND
SNOWFALL ARE EXTREMELY LOW. BY SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
SNOW WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
REMAINING GENERALLY VFR BUT DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR OR LOWER DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. VISIBILITY FOLLOWS THE SAME TREND, WITH
PREVAILING VFR BUT DROPPING AS LOW AS LIFR OR LOWER DURING HEAVIER
SNOW. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS (20-30 KTS) EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
RETURN TO CONSISTENT VFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWEST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/99/94
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