274
FXUS65 KLKN 172151
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
151 PM PST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
CHANGING ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SEEN ACROSS AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA.
ALREADY, KWMC IS DEPICTING A BROKEN DECK AT ABOUT 5000 FEET AT
THIS TIME. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING. IN ADDITION, ANY PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL DUE COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECREASING
AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW FOR A 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH TOMORROW ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR
SELECT AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA:
AUSTIN - 3%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 0%
ELKO - 55%
ELY - 10%
EUREKA - 45%
OWYHEE - 100%
SPRING CREEK - 80%
TONOPAH - 0%
WEST WENDOVER - 10%
WINNEMUCCA - 30%
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST LATER IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A HALF
INCH OR LESS NORTH OF AND INCLUDING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
ABOVE 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 35 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON:
AUSTIN - 4%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 95%
ELKO - 55%
ELY - 70%
EUREKA - 1%
OWYHEE - 5%
SPRING CREEK - 15%
TONOPAH - 90%
WEST WENDOVER - 97%
WINNEMUCCA - 90%
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND BRISK WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE LEE-
SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ALSO ACROSS WEST WENDOVER AND TONOPAH.
LOOK FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A COLD START TO THE DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY (GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE) ACROSS MANY VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY COLD FRONT/SNOW
EVENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30 AND 40S.
CLOUD COVER A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND NORTHWESTERN NV WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH SKIRTS
OVER THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY.
A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX TO THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OFF QUITE HIGH ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR MASS OVERALL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY. WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW, TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG PASSES AND HIGH
ELEVATIONS ROADWAYS FOR THE WEEKEND. AN OVERALL ACTIVE WAVE
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ENSEMBLE
SPREAD BECOMES SIGNIFICANT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE, POSSIBLY THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT LEAST INDICATING A SLOW DECLINE
BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AMPLE CLOUD COVER BACK INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
THIS EVENING ABRUPTLY FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF INITIALLY MIXED
RAIN/SNOW BUT EXPECTATION FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE FEATURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA. ONSET TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUS MOST SIGNIFICANT
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL BE AROUND 08Z FOR KWMC, 930Z FOR KBAM
AND BETWEEN 10-11Z FOR KEKO. EXPECT RAPIDLY FALLING VIS AND CIG
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS FORM THE WEST
AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEVERAL HOURS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY
BEFORE VIS IMPROVES AT KWMC, KBAM AND KEKO AROUND 11Z, 13Z AND 14Z
RESPECTIVELY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KTPH BEGINNING AROUND 14Z.
VCSH AT KELY FROM 14Z TO 17Z BUT SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
86/93/93
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