540
FXUS65 KLKN 192147
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
147 PM PST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE CLOUDY
SKIES AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUING UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING
INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BUT ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY AS
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION IS NOT LIKELY.
THERE IS ONLY A 50% CHANCE OR LESS OF MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN HUMBOLDT AND AREAS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING OCCURS LEEWARD OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA. HOWEVER, AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES UNDER A ROBUST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY TOMORROW ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, LIMITING MINIMAL SNOWFALL TO HIGH ELEVATIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S, RAMPING UP INTO THE 20S
AND 30S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MID AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPS CONSIDERABLY WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY'S
HIGHS, REACHING INTO THE 40S AND SOME 50S IN LOWER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
A FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA WITH THE MULTI-DAY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
ONGOING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH UP TO A
FOOT OF RAINFALL IN SOME PLACES AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN THE
CASCADES. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS EVENT WILL BE A DEEP VERTICALLY-
STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALASKA. LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THIS
LOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WORKWEEK, RESULTING PROLONGED
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, THE
ONLY REAL EFFECTS FOR US WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY TREND ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH A FEW 60S
EVEN FOR SOME NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO PROGRESS
WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW MOVING INLAND, THANKFULLY MUCH WEAKER,
THOUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL. MOVING INLAND, THE LOW WILL ALSO
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY, PUSHING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW 5000 FEET TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30
MPH ACROSS WINNEMUCCA, EUREKA, AND ELY. WINDS INCREASE AND SPREAD
FURTHER EAST INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD 50-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF A LEAST 30
MPH. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 5000 FEET EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN WHITE PINE
AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH A 25% CHANCE FOR 2 OR MORE
INCHES AT ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, AND ELY, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8-12
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RUBY, SNAKE, AND JARBIDGE
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION
OTHER THAN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, ABOVE
6000FT AGL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DENSEST CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES (STILL ONLY 20%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
KWMC.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
93/84/93
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