464
FXUS65 KLKN 201007
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 AM PST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ARE LOW, WITH CENTRAL NEVADA REMAINING DRY. BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE UPPER PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE CONTINENTAL
U.S. AND CANADA. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDING OFF
SHORE OF THE PACNW CONTINUES TO DIRECT A DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PLUME INTO NORCAL AND THE NORTHWEST. MAIN EFFECTS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY WILL BE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDERS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BUT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 7000 FEET ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT,
RESIDING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.
WARMING TREND IN PLACE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RESIDE MOSTLY IN THE
20S, SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
UPPER PATTERN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY WITH A REGION OF
DEEP AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION OFF SHORE OF
THE PACNW UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WEATHER WILL BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO THAT OF WEDNESDAYS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING FURTHER, TO AROUND 8500 FEET
ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
FRIDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIGHTING WITH ALL ITS
MIGHT TO PREVENT THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A LOSING BATTLE
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAKES LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
POP’S WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR NEVADA STARTING AT
20% TO 30% ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY, SPREADING EAST POPS RISE TO
AROUND 90% BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL
BE MIX OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AS SNOW LEVELS
START AT THE 7,500 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE SILVER STATE BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA, IN FACT DURING THIS PERIOD POPS DO NOT DROP BELOW
30% UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND SNOW LEVELS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NV DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE FRONTS LOCATION OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. SMALL
DEVIATIONS NORTH OR SOUTH COULD DETERMINE HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AS
RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE VALLEYS AND PASSES. AS THE FORECAST STANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VALLEYS WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN, WHILE THE PASSES
AND ROADWAY SUMMITS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR ARRIVES DROPPING SNOW LEVELS BELOW
5000 FEET. ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEY FLOORS, AND A WINTER MIX FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS LIKE WINNEMUCCA AND BATTLE MOUNTAIN. OVERALL TOTAL LIQUID
QPF FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WELCOME, AS VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.20” TO 0.75”, PASSES AND ROADWAY SUMMITS COULD RECEIVE
AROUND 0.4” TO 1.00” OF WATER, WHILE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SEE A
STORM TOTAL OF 0.75” UP TO 2.00” OF LIQUID. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
VALLEYS AND THE PASSES AGAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL LOCATION
AND COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. VALLEYS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
TRACE TO 3”. PASSES AND ROADWAY SUMMITS COULD GET FROM 1” TO 4”,
AND MOUNTAINS COULD GET 4” TO 12” BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGHS START IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY, DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20 TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S, DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR THE LONG TERM
AS WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO NW AT 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
20 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA AT KWMC AFTER 21/00Z. WINDS WILL
BE S-SE 10-15G15-20KT ACROSS AREA TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/98/86
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