212
FXUS65 KLKN 211023
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 AM PST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATON ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE CENTRAL NEVADA REMAINS DRY. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEATHER
REMAINS ACTIVE THRU MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS POISED OFF SHORE OF THE PACNW,
DIRECTING A DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME INTO NORCAL AND THE
NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS WEAKER WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATON
(AROUND 30%) NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ANY LIQUID EQUIVALENT
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND 0.10" OR LESS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH TODAY, AROUND 8500 FEET ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND BETWEEN
6000 AND 7000 FEET ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RESIDE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS DECREASE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BRINGING A
MODEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM THURSDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION (AROUND 10%) NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (60% TO 80%) ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY BREEZES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE IMPACTS TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD DURING THE EARLY TO MID
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE JUST OFF THE
COAST, BUT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A 250MB 140+ KNOT JET AND A
FAIRLY DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE BARRELING ITS WAY INTO THE SIERRA
NEVADA. SPILLOVER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS
AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET. AS THE DAY WEARS ON, HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND
SO WILL THE SNOW LEVELS, BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE VALLEY FLOORS IN THE NORTH WITH LEVELS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET IN CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH. FOR SATURDAY, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS, THOUGH THE HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS ACROSS
THE AREA, LIKE PEQUOP, HD SUMMIT, AND SUMMITS/PASSES ALONG US
HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET
SNOW. LOOK FOR COOLER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS MENTIONED, ANY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 40S IN THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE COLDER LOCALES SEEING THE
30S. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY, THOUGH THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THE WEATHER TO BREAK TEMPORARILY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO SPILLOVER INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER
THOSE HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE, BUT
THERE EXISTS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SHOWERY WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE PASSES. HIGHS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S. THOUGH SEVEN DAYS OUT, A BREAK FOR QUIETER WEATHER MAY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY FOR THOSE HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
TRYING TO GET TO THEIR DESTINATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH TODAY AS A POTENT PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/86/90
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