924
FXUS65 KLKN 212201
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
201 PM PST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM PERSISTENT PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS
TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET BUT SOME HIGHER VALLEYS
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY AS TRAJECTORY OF ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN REMAIN HIGHEST (UP TO 60%) ACROSS FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONLY A
10% CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL IN WINNEMUCCA. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT OVERALL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
IN EASTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEST OF
US-95. A RELATIVE PEAK IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S IN MANY VALLEYS UNDER A WARMING
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALLOWING THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
REALIGN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL RING
OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT EXPECT
EXPANDING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO MOVE FARTHER INTO
NEVADA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
FROM SNOW WILL BE LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER A RELATIVELY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THREE DISTINCT
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
ALL THREE OF THEM WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL FALL SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR SATURDAY EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AS
NO MORE THAN TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PASSES
AND SUMMITS ALONG HIGHWAY 50. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW AT SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING:
EUREKA - 55%
RUTH - 50%
ELY - 45%
MCGILL - 45%
AUSTIN - 40%
LAMOILLE - 30%
WELLS - 25%
SPRING CREEK - 20%
OWYHEE - 20%
THE SECOND ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE
MAJORITY OF THE SERVICE AREA. THE THIRD ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGHER LOW LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. BE THAT AS IT MAY, TRAVEL
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR AT WORST. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER OF BKN/OVC ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
I-80 WITH KWMC HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN AT 15%
THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CIG ABOVE 6000
FEET AT ALL TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE, FALLING SNOW LEVELS AND CIGS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
93/87/93
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