112
FXUS65 KLKN 222046
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1246 PM PST FRI NOV 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SATURDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT AROUND 7,000 FEET TONIGHT, BEFORE
DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT 7,000 FEET TONIGHT, PRIOR TO DROPPING
TO THE VALLEY FLOOR SATURDAY EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR
AS NO MORE THAN TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PASSES
AND SUMMITS ALONG HIGHWAY 50, EAST OF EUREKA SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER MOST PASSES AND SUMMITS IN NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW AT SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23RD, 2024 UNTIL 10 AM PST
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24TH, 2024:
RUTH - 49%
ELY - 40%
AUSTIN - 39%
MCGILL - 38%
EUREKA -37%
OWYHEE - 27%
LAMOILLE - 25%
SPRING CREEK - 10%
ELKO - 4%
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION, AS THE
LEADING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUT OF THE SILVER STATE, WHILE A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS WAY INTO THE SILVER STATE TO START
THANKSGIVING WEEK. FOR NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL, FOR CENTRAL NV ONGOING SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO
AN END BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BRIEF BREAK WILL BE DUE A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP
TO NEAR 10% BUT BY MONDAY EVENING WILL BE ON THE WAY BACK UP TO
30% TO NEAR 70% BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. THIS SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS A BIT
SLOWER ON EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM BY ABOUT 18 HOURS, THAN THE EC AS IT
SHOWS PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR CENTRAL NV BY EARLY THURSDAY,
WHILE THE EC EXITS THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR
SENSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IT WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MODELS REMAIN A BIT COLD FAVORING MORE
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COLDER
AIR WILL BE LATE TO THE PARTY AS UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SW LONGER THAN THE MODELS SHOW, DELAYING COLDER AIR’S ARRIVAL.
FOR THE VALLEYS, RAIN STILL WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO ABOUT 1 INCH BY PRECIPITATIONS END, WHILE OVER
ALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL RUN ABOUT 0.05” TO UP TO 0.50”. FOR THE
PASSES AND ROADWAY SUMMITS QPF WILL RUN ABOUT 0.25” TO 1”, WITH
ABOUT 1” TO 3” OF THAT LIQUID BEING SNOW. MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SEE
MOSTLY SNOWFALL WITH AMOUNTS RUNNING ABOUT 4” TO 10”. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING
EVENING BRINGING QUIETER CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGHS START IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY, HIGHS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 30S
TO LOW 40S THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR THE LONG TERM
AS WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO NW AT 10 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS LOWER BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE STATE, WITH VCSH TO -SHRA
IMPACTING KWMC AND KBAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEKO BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
87/98/98
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