050
FXUS65 KLKN 152142
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
142 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FROM
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY,
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THIS SNOW CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5,500
AND 6,000 FEET, WITH SNOWFALL LIKELY CONCENTRATED IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS, INDEPENDENCE
RANGE, AND RUBY MTNS/E HUMBOLDT RANGE CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW, WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE VALLEYS.
HERE ARE PROBABILITIES FOR A TRACE OF SNOW OR MORE FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FROM 10 AM PST SUNDAY UNTIL 10 AM
PST MONDAY:
CARLIN – 30%
ELKO - 30%
JACKPOT – 55%
JARBIDGE – 100%
LAMOILLE SUMMIT – 30%
OWYHEE – 90%
PEQUOP SUMMIT - 75%
SPRING CREEK – 55%
WELLS – 55%
WILDHORSE - 75%
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THE REST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER
20S.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD, BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE WINTRY MIX
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80. VALLEYS
CAN EXPECT A TRACE TO 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH UP TO 1 INCH ON
HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY
SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITION EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS
AND PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5,500 AND 6,000 FEET, WITH SNOWFALL LIKELY
CONCENTRATED IN HIGHER TERRAIN. VALLEYS CAN EXPECT A TRACE TO 0.5
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH UP TO 1 INCH ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL.
BELOW ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR A TRACE OR MORE OF SNOW OF
SNOWFALL AT SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR
FEBRUARY 19-20TH:
AUSTIN - 60%
ELKO - 55%
ELY - 60%
EUREKA - 65%
JACKPOT – 80%
JARBIDGE - 95%
OWYHEE – 85%
PEQUOP SUMMIT - 85%
RUBY LAKE - 85%
SPRING CREEK - 80%
WELLS - 85%
DRY AND QUIET CONDITION RETURN NEXT FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE A
RIDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
AVIATION
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ACROSS
THE AREA WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 15Z AT KWMC, 16Z AT KBAM AND 18Z AT
KEKO. REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
LESS INTENSE. GENERAL WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL
ENCOMPASS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY AT KELY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
90/90/93
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