081
FXUS65 KLKN 160937
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
137 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR LOW PRESSURE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECORDED YET, THOUGH THIS MORNING'S RADAR
LOOP IS SHOWING INCREASING ECHO RETURNS IN FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY RESIDES WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
DAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS REMAINING NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY
50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 5500 TO
6000 FEET BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH WITH
40S AND 50S IN CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS CONTINUING NORTH OF, AND INCLUDING, THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
20S AND 30S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING THROUGHOUT MONDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FELT ON SUNDAY. READINGS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
SWITCHING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WITH TWO DAY STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS AND
ABOUT THREE TO SIX INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. HERE ARE THE
PROBABILITIES THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE TWO OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN A 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
JACKPOT - 1%
JARBIDGE - 90%
OWYHEE - 40%
WILDHORSE RES - 20%
THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY
EAST. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHEAST NEVADA
WITH VERY LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN NORTHEAST NV ON TUESDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OUR AREA. MORNING LOWS
WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING, RESULTING
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER IN NORTHERN NV; TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY, AND HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN CENTRAL NV WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. A TRACE
TO 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN THE
VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS NEAR MOUNTAIN PASSES AND SUMMITS. UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
LOW, THEN WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 20S SATURDAY MORNING, INCREASING
TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S ON SATURDAY, THEN WARM TO THE 50S ON SUNDAY, WITH PARTS OF
CENTRAL NV REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH -SHRASN
BEGINNING AT KWMC BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z, AND SPREADING EAST TO KBAM
AND KEKO AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THRU TONIGHT BUT WILL BE LESS
INTENSE WITH -SHRASN SWITCHING TO VCSH BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. KELY
AND KTPH LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THAT
SAID, A 10% PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER AT KELY THIS AFTERNOON IS
ACKNOWLEDGED, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO NOTE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY AT
KELY. WINDS ALSO EASE TONIGHT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
86/89/92
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