597
FXUS65 KLKN 162015
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1215 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START
AT AROUND 6,000 FEET THIS EVENING, BEFORE FALLING TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE SERVICE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT 6,000 FEET THIS EVENING, BEFORE
DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF A TRACE OF SNOW OR MORE FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 4 PM PST SUNDAY,
FEBRUARY 16TH, 2025 UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 17TH, 2025:
OWYHEE - 94%
JACKPOT - 79%
WELLS - 70%
MCDERMITT - 68%
SPRING CREEK 65%
DENIO - 64%
ELKO - 62%
OROVADA - 53%
WINNEMUCCA - 52%
CARLIN - 43%
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN U.S. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE 30S TO 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO 30S ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE SMALL BREAK IN WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED TO LAST AS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE
PUSHED EASTWARD AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
THOUGH NORTHWESTERN U.S., RETURNING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
UP TO 60-80% ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND 50-60% FOR CENTRAL NEVADA.
MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000
FEET, THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AS SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO
JUST ABOVE 6000 FEET DURING THE DAY DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES,
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET. VALLEYS COULD SEE UP TO 0.5 INCHES,
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PASSES SEEING 0.5-1 INCH OF SNOW (1.5
FOR PEQUOP SUMMIT), AND MOUNTAINS SEEING UP TO 2-4 INCHES (UP TO
4-8 INCHES OVER JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND UP TO 6-10 INCHES
OVER RUBY MOUNTAINS). HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES EARLY THURSDAY, LEAVING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARMING
TREND TAKES HOLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S TO 40S, WARMING INTO
THE 40S TO 50S ON FRIDAY, WITH SATURDAY HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO SEEING THIS WARMING
TREND STARTING IN THE TEENS TO 20S THURSDAY, AND WARMING INTO THE
20S TO 30S BY SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS BECOME DOMINANT OVER ALL TERMINALS AS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER MOVES EAST LEAVING CLEARER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SOME VCSH
OVER KEKO. VCSH CONDITIONS NEAR KELY FROM THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS
FROM VIRGA. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS AND
DISSIPATING TO LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
87/97/97
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