539
FXUS65 KLKN 172313
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 WILL DISSIPATE AND
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, DRYING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE OVER NEVADA BY MID-WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN NORTHERN
NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE
VALLEYS WITH MORE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AND RUBY MOUNTAINS UP TO 2 MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SET TO CLEAR OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT,
LEAVING CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
20S. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WILL DISSIPATE INTO CALMER WINDS
OVERNIGHT BELOW 10 MPH.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE KEEPS THE DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE QUIET
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, BRINGING INCREASE CHANCES OF MORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SOME POSSIBLE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WITHIN THE LOWER HUMBOLDT
RIVER BASIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL EMERGE WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PROMOTING INCREASED LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. AN ADVANCING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND INFLUX OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING AREAS OF SNOW
AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER, PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS RATHER
HIGH AT 6000 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO AROUND 7000 FEET
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT DAYTIME IMPACTS FROM SNOW IN MOST VALLEYS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING SNOW INTENSITY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
LIMITING VALLEYS SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TO 1-2
INCHES. PASSES AND SUMMITS COULD STILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL ON
ROADWAYS EXIST IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY ALONG SR-225 REACHING
AROUND 70% CHANCE WITH A 40% CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE IN RUBY
VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S COULD CAUSE
REFREEZE ISSUES ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SNOW DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOK QUIET AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO 40S AND SOME LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A
GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/RAIN DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. AN EXCEPTIONAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 75% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE FEBRUARY 23RD-27TH TIME FRAME.
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE A POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS STILL LESS THAN 20% BUT EXPECT
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF ONE OF THESE SHOWERS PASSES OVER
AN AIRPORT. CIGS ARE REMAINING ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE ABSENCE OF
SHOWERS BUT COULD DROP TO 1500 FEET OR BELOW BRIEFLY IF A SHOWERS
MOVES OVERHEAD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT TO BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR ALL
BUT KTPH WHERE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
97/93/93
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