560
FXUS65 KLKN 202221
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
221 PM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE SILVER STATE
INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND AN EASTWARD RETREATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.
SHORT TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV MID WEEK CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT IN UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SW CONUS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO BEGIN A WARMING TREND AS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY FOR THE AREA WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE IS SCARCE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 700MB RH
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS PW VALUES OVER THE
AREA BOTTOM OUT IN THE 0.05-0.15 RANGE. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST NV BY 12Z. RIDING ZONAL FLOW IN
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
THE REGION THOUGH AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE AND MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY
AS A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS OVER THE REGION AS A WHOLE SO
IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY FELT AT HIGHER AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO THE POINT WHERE IMPACTS, EVEN
AT THE HIGHEST PASSES AND SUMMITS, WILL BE MINIMAL. PROBABILITY OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IS LESS THAN 10% EVEN IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
WITH 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH 40S IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICKLY EASTWARD TRANSLATING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
AGAIN BRING A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS TO VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE, 10% OR LESS, OF 1" OR MORE SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE HORIZON FOR MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
U.S. WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S BY
THURSDAY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN THE RETREATING STORM SYSTEM FROM MID WEEK
AS CIGS IMPROVE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE FOR TERMINALS
KTPH AND KELY THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT ANY
TERMINAL LOCATION THROUGH FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
99/93/99
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