251
FXUS65 KLKN 020849
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
149 AM PDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WETTEST AREAS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EASTERN HUMBOLDT, WESTERN ELKO,
LANDER, AND PORTIONS OF NW NYE COUNTIES WHERE A QUARTER TO A HALF
OF IN OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NV.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, WHICH WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV,
INCLUDING NW NYE, S LANDER AND S EUREKA COUNTIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UPS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING (5% CHANCE) ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WILL NUDGE THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA EASTWARD. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NV LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WHERE SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NV SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING IN THROUGH CENTRAL NV MEETING UP
WITH THE WETTER AIR MASS WHICH WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE W-NW
THROUGH HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WESTERN ELKO AND NORTHERN LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES. ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES IS
WHERE THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE (10-20%
CHANCE) OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH, NE THROUGH CENTRAL
EUREKA COUNTY AND UP THROUGH JARBIDGE. THOSE AREAS CAN EXPECT
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 11AM AND 11PM
SATURDAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT LINE CAN EXPECT
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE
AND MOVES EAST OVER THE SILVER STATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AN THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO EXIT NEVADA. ON
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MERGE WITH THE
LOW, BRINGING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEVADA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80. BETWEEN 0.3-0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE, AND 0.5-0.8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST IN VALLEYS SOUTH OF I-80. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES, BUT NONE IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE AND MOVING OVER NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS LOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
AT KWMC, KEKO, KELY, AND KTPH, AND FROM THE N-NW AT 5-10 KTS AT
KBAM. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN FL100 TO FL150 AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING BREEZY WINDS, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS,
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/89/90
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