292
FXUS65 KLKN 022019
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
119 PM PDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS EARLY
SATURDAY AS A ROBUST UPPER TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND. MORE MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROF OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY FOR MOST THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AND GENERALLY VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES RESIDE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AS ALLUDED TO, COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100 AND 150 J/KG
WITH PWAT VALUES WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES AND AS HIGH
AS 0.75 INCHES. THE TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOT ANTICIPATING VALLEY SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 9000 FEET AND HIGHER WITH ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA OBSERVING ANY SNOWFALL.
PRECIPITATION CARRIES ON THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE IN AND NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE THRU THE EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RESIDE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY WILL OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HERE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BROADEN
AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW WHILE THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH
WILL TRY AND SPLIT FROM THE NEW UPPER LOW. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
NEITHER WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AND BOTH THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
STALL OVER THE WESTERN US WITH THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. MEANWHILE A UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ONLY ACT TO FURTHER CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ALSO WITH THE NOW WEAK FLOW OVER THE WEST,
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSIT THE COMPLEX FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW BY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA
ACROSS UTAH, ONLY TO BE EJECTED THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NEVADA ACTIVE AS BOTH THE
UPPER LOW AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW FOCUS LIFT AND DELIVER PERIODS OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE EACH DAY WONT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER MUCH NEEDED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTH ACROSS UTAH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR EASTERN NV WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAIN
AND THUNDER, BUT THE WEST WILL STILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN, IT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE DECENT AS VALLEYS COULD
SEE BETWEEN 0.15” TO 0.60” OF RAIN WITH PASSES AND SUMMITS
RECEIVING 0.30” TO 1.00” OF WATER WITH UP TO AN 0.5” OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL FAVORS THE CENTRAL NEVADA SUMMITS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW, AS THE RUBIES COULD SEE BETWEEN 1” TO 4” OF SNOW
WHILE THE SNAKE RANGE COULD SEE BETWEEN 4” TO 8” OF NEW WET SNOW.
BY FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GIVEN A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AS HIGHS
COULD VARY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
70S THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
VFR FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING BREEZY WINDS, RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/98/98
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