513
FXUS65 KLKN 031005
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
305 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY OVER
MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL NV. DRIER AND WARMER TUESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ENERGY CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PROGRESSING TO THE SE, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NV.
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NV THIS MORNING
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NV
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOWERS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WESTERN ELKO COUNTY, AND MOST OF LANDER
COUNTY WHERE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS NW NEVADA SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NV. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (15-25%) ACROSS EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY, HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, WITH MOST SHOWERS CONFINED TO WHITE PINE AND NE NYE
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES, THE MAIN PIECE WILL BE
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND THE REMNANT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ALSO STALL OVER MONTANA.
MEANWHILE A UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE UPPER FLOW
FURTHER WHICH WILL ALLOW SMALL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO TRANSIT THE COMPLEX FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW BY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA ACROSS UTAH, ONLY TO BE
EJECTED THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP NEVADA ACTIVE AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND THE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THE UPPER LOW FOCUS LIFT AND DELIVER PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE EACH DAY
WONT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER MUCH NEEDED
AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND
ISOLATED AS MOST LOCATIONS MAY WIND UP DRY, IN NATURE AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS DIG SOUTH ACROSS UTAH. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR EASTERN NV
WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDER, BUT THE
WEST WILL STILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDER.
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE DECENT AS
VALLEYS COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.15” TO 0.60” OF RAIN WITH PASSES AND
SUMMITS RECEIVING 0.30” TO 1.00” OF WATER. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AS SNOW LEVEL TRENDS HIGHER IN ELEVATION AS MODELS KEEP
LEVELS AT NEAR 7500 FEET. SYSTEM TRACK ALSO FAVORS THE CENTRAL
NEVADA SUMMITS WITH THE SNAKE RANGE SEEING BETWEEN 4” TO 8” OF NEW
WET SNOW. BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL GIVE NV A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION TIMING
AS HIGHS COULD VARY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL TAF SITES. WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES
FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S-NW AT 10-15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS AT KELY AND KTPH. HOWEVER, VARIABLE WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY STORMS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
WINDS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
99/98/90
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