032
FXUS65 KLKN 032017
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
117 PM PDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
BRING PERIODS OF WIND, RAIN AND SNOW, AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SILVER STATE FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY, AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW
TAKES SHAPE AT THE BASE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
TRIGGER THE EVENTUAL SPLITTING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US
INTO TWO PIECES BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NEVADA IN AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BE IT SEVERE
OR GENERAL, WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN HUMBOLDT, WESTERN ELKO, LANDER,
EUREKA AND INTO NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES, HERE WILL RESIDE THE BEST
CAPE, SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND LI VALUES. WHICH IS WHY THE SPC HAS
NORTH CENTRAL NV UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TIMING WISE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NOON TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE EMBEDDED WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH A MIX OF
RAIN, HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
FOR SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY, AS COMPARED TO TODAY, SO SEVERE
CONVECTION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. THE BEST NEWS WILL BE THE RAIN
TOTALS FOR THE WEEKEND AS VALLEYS COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.15” TO UP TO
0.65”, THE ROADWAY PASSES AND SUMMITS COULD SEE UP TO 1.00” OF
RAIN. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE SNAKE RANGE BEING THE BIG WINNER WITH UP TO 6” OF SNOW,
OTHER RANGES LIKE THE RUBIES COULD SEE 2” TO 4” OF NEW SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
MPH TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS TO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
STILL DAMP TO START THE WEEK BUT THE DRYING PROCESS HAS BEGUN.
OVER THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SEPARATES FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, PULLING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT POPS GENERALLY LOOK MUCH
WEAKER COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH A FEW 70S STARTING TO MIX IN ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY LOWER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WHERE SHOWERS
PERSIST THE LONGEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S. RIDGING LOOKS TO PERSIST ON THURSDAY, BUT
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS, INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. WHAT SEEMS VERY CONFIDENT RIGHT NOW IS THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FROM HERE THERE SEEMS
TO BE TWO MAIN SCENARIOS. FIRST, THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE.
THIS WOULD CAUSE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, AND IS THE
FAVORED SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH COULD ALSO
MOVE ONSHORE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS IT
STANDS, THIS FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
CHANGES.
AVIATION
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ALL SITES EXCEPT KELY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY SUNDOWN BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. LONGER DURATION GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER, BUT SHORT LIVED STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THOSE PERIODS IN COMBINATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITY MAY ALSO DROP BELOW VFR WITH STRONGER SHOWERS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAF INCLUSION. LONG DURATION
CEILINGS BELOW VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC AND KBAM. BRIEFLY LOWERED
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR BROADER TAF INCLUSION.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
98/94/94
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