871
FXUS65 KLKN 040810
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
110 AM PDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS TAPER OFF ACROSS
NW NEVADA LATER TODAY, WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NV THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER TUESDAY INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA, OR AND
CA CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE TROUGH TRACKS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, THE ENERGY
SPLITS, SETTING UP A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CA. RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS
MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL NV. AS FAR AS REMAINING QPF AMOUNTS FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY, THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS RAIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF. THE REMAINING TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM
A TENTH TO A HALF AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS
WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST,
WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NV.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER EAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN AND NEAR WHITE PINE
COUNTY THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THRU THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW WITH DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW. NORTHERLY BREEZES
TUESDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH, EASING OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S.
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER THRU MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
INCREASING PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BUILDUPS AND/OR VIRGA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LATEST PROGS MAINTAINING PWATS OF LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES, MEANING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY,
AND PAIRED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO
INITIATE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TYPICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL APPLY. CONCURRENTLY ON FRIDAY A
LONG WAVE TROF WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY OFF SHORE OF THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND WEATHER
WILL BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CA/AZ BORDER TODAY, BRINGING VCSH OR -SHRA TO ALL TAF SITES. WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED TO KBAM, KEKO,
KELY, AND KTPH FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 03Z MON. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NW
AT 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KWMC, KELY, AND KTPH.
HOWEVER, VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY STORMS. RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA ON MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/92/90
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