292
FXUS65 KLKN 042008
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
108 PM PDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
BRING PERIODS OF WIND, RAIN AND SNOW, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SILVER STATE THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOW
WILL CLIP FAR EASTERN NV TUESDAY, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR MID WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BORDER TO
BORDER ACROSS THE WESTERN US. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAS REACHED ITS FARTHEST SOUTHERN
POINT AND HAS BEGUN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH AND UPPER FLOW. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EJECT NE INTO CANADA AND BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLY FLOW. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT BEFORE THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES IT WILL FORM A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
FOR ANOTHER AREAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
FOR SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY, AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY, SO SEVERE
CONVECTION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. MONDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. FOR NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS POPS DROP
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 10%. FOR CENTRAL NV POPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20% TO 50% MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER
POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED HIGH PEAK MOUNTAIN SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THAT SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF IDAHO INTO
FAR EASTERN NV, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION WITH
RECENT RUNS BUT LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MY BE ENOUGH FOR A
LOW 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER. OVERALL THE
RAIN TOTALS FOR THE WEEKEND STILL LOOK GOOD AS VALLEYS MAY SEE
BETWEEN 0.05” TO UP TO 0.50” OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY, THE ROADWAY
PASSES AND SUMMITS COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 0.50” TO 0.75” OF
RAIN STILL TO COME. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE SNAKE RANGE BEING THE BIG WINNER WITH UP TO
6” OF SNOW, OTHER RANGES LIKE THE RUBIES COULD SEE 2” TO 4” OF NEW
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S AND IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TO
START THE NEW WEEK. WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, SPEEDS LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AT 10
MPH TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. MONDAY WINDS EASE
BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NW AT 5 MPH TO 15 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST, PROMOTING DRY AND WARM/HOT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES START OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE UTAH BORDER IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY DEPARTING CUTOFF UPPER-LOW. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HERE
ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 85 DEGREES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
AUSTIN - 5%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 85%
CARLIN - 70%
CRESCENT VALLEY - 80%
DENIO - 55%
ELKO - 70%
ELY - 5%
EUREKA - 20%
JACKPOT - 25%
OWYHEE - 50%
TONOPAH - 45%
WINNEMUCCA - 90%
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH A SMALL SUBSET OF LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH ROUGHLY
HALF THE MEMBERS BRINGING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE INTO THE
WEST COAST, A QUARTER OF THE MEMBERS WITH ZONAL FLOW, AND A
QUARTER OF THE MEMBERS MAINTAINING RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLOWER TROUGH ARRIVAL. THE EARLIER TROUGH SOLUTIONS
WOULD BRING SLIGHT PRECIPITATION OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TO
THE AREA SUNDAY, SO NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, REGARDLESS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR STREAMS AND CREEKS
FOR RISES WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AND TIMING FOR FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO CATEGORIES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
BASED ON LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS AT KEKO AND KELY BETWEEN 20 AND
02Z AND AT KTPH BETWEEN 20 AND 06Z. BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ALONG WITH THUNDER WITH STRONGER DOWNPOURS DURING THIS WINDOW WITH
A 30% PROBABILITY. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED TO FURTHER REFINE
CURRENT PROB30 GROUPS. WINDS FAVORING THE NORTH TODAY FROM 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KT OTHERWISE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR VFR TONIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (15% OR LESS CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
98/84/84
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