878
FXUS65 KLKN 052024
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
124 PM PDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL CLIP FAR EASTERN NV TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S BY FRIDAY. ALAS, THIS TASTE OF SPRING WONT
LAST AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA HAS FULLY DETACHED FROM IT
PARENT TROUGH TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
LIFTING NE INTO CANADA AND WILL BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES, IT WILL FORM A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING THE UPPER FLOW OVER
ALBERTA DROPS INTO THE WEAKENING TROUGH. THIS SECOND SMALLER LOW
WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER TUESDAY
MORNING REACHING LAKE MEAD TUESDAY EVENING. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WHITE PINE, AND FAR EASTERN NYE COUNTIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
US-6 AND EAST OF US-93. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAT
SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF IDAHO INTO FAR EASTERN NV,
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION WITH RECENT RUNS BUT
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NEVADA WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF
CARLIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
WINDS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 MPH TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF NE
AT 5 MPH TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS THAT PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SAID ZONAL FLOW EXISTS IN THE BROAD AXIS OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE AREA. BY SATURDAY, THE
HPC UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST WILL COMBINE WITH THE
ENCROACHMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST TO PROVIDE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
SEE A MARKED INCREASE INTO THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY SHIFT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SCARCE AT BEST.
UNDER THE RIDGE PW VALUES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING IS HARD TO
COME BY THROUGH SATURDAY. UNDER AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY, SOME CAPE EXISTS (IN THE 80-120 J/KG RANGE) OVER EASTERN
NV SUNDAY EVENING. LI'S ARE FAVORABLE IN THE 0 TO -1 NEIGHBORHOOD
FOR SOME POSSIBLE DRY CONVECTION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL BUT WITH PW'S IN THE 0.45-0.5 INCH RANGE
AND HIGH LCLS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE WILL BE OF THE DRY
VARIETY.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH ITS AXIS INTO NEVADA BY MONDAY. 500-MB
VORTICITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE INCREASE IN VORTICITY THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
RE-ORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OVER NORTH NV. THIS WILL KEEP FRONTAL
FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE KTPH
TERMINAL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN THE 30-35KT RANGE BUT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS OVER KEKO ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BE INTERMITTENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A WEATHER SYSTEM
SKIRTING THE EASTERN NV BORDER. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT VIS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, THIS LOW
WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FAR EASTERN WHITE PINE AND NYE COUNTIES MONDAY. A SECOND MORE
COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT, THIS
LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER AND BRING A LOW 20% CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR SOME.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH, WINDS EASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK TO NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
98/99/99/98
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