901
FXUS65 KLKN 062202
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER THRU FRIDAY ASIDE FROM A STRAY DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES UNDER A WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. STRONGER PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MESO LOW OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH AND OUT OF NEVADA TONIGHT, RESIDING OVER SOCAL BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE, MOVING SOUTH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW, AND DISSIPATING THRU THIS EVENING. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL, CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT TO CALM. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLVES. SHOWERS OBSERVED THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC LOW
THAT LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAIN
RANGES AND FURTHER EAST WITH NEVADA OBSERVING DRY WEATHER. THAT
SAID, SOME NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OPTING NOT TO
INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE
PROGGED LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. LACK OF ANY APPARENT UPPER FORCING ALSO
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. CUMULUS BUILD UPS
WILL BE THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES UNDER A WARMING TREND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RESIDE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SW CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MAINTAIN ZONAL FORCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET (SAVE FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON) OVER THE STATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. CAPE VALUES OVER
EASTERN NV IN THE 120-160 J/KG RANGE COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LI
VALUES ARE SET UP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. PW VALUES FALL BELOW WHAT
IS NEEDED FOR WET STORMS BUT DRY CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AND RESIDENT HPC PROPAGATE FAR
ENOUGH EASTWARD EXPOSING THE AREA TO THE HIGHS WESTERN FLANK AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST, WEEKEND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS THREATENING
SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION.
A JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE SW CONUS
WILL REINFORCE GUSTY WINDS UNDER AN EVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS CRITERIA LEVEL
WIND GUSTS (POTENTIAL 50-55 MPH GUSTS) OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.
MONDAY THE AREA IS FIRMLY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING CLOUD COVER HELPING TO LOWER
HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S. GUSTY WINDS RAMP
BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AT AND BEYOND CRITERIA LEVELS SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF
THE ONCOMING TROUGH AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN WET
WEATHER DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH IT. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT HAS CWA-WIDE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.1-0.3 RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY TREKS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S TUESDAY MAKING FOR A COOL, RAINY DAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE AREA RESIDES IN NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS NEAR 4000-5000FT OVER EASTERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL NV ON TUESDAY WILL ASCEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN NV PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVER KELY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KTPH WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30KTS BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WEATHER IS CALM WITH LIGHTER WINDS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THRU FRIDAY WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES GENERALLY RESIDING AROUND 15% OR
GREATER. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN AND NEAR FWZ 426
WHERE VALUES AS LOW AS 10% WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED. CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ALONG WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN AND NEAR FWZS 438, 469, 470, AND 425 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THE LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNDER A WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN 80S BY FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/99/99/92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page