635
FXUS65 KLKN 070934
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
234 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED DAILY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER, WITH 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS ALSO A
15% CHANCE OF FOG THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WOULD GENERALLY BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHERE AS OF 2AM THIS MORNING
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80 PERCENT RANGE.
WARMER TODAY BY AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHEASTERN NV, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY JUMP BY ANOTHER 5
DEGREES, WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S. SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON,
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE FAVORED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NE NV
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (5%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY FROM ROUGHLY JARBIDGE TO
JACKPOT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 80S AND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH
THE SAME FOR SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS, LIKELY REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WARM, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S, BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ENTER NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AXIS
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND EXPANDING SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 60S. THERE’S STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON PRECISE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
THERE’S STILL MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BOTH DAYS WILL SEE
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S. WINDS LOOK TO DIE DOWN SOME AS WELL, WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 20 FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL080 TO FL200 WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH WARMER THE REST OF THIS
WEEK. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS ZONES 469 470 AND
NORTHERN 425 ON SATURDAY WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO
AROUND 5-20%, HIGHEST UP NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. WIND ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. THE
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY, WITH STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/94/90/96
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