618
FXUS65 KLKN 072140
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
240 PM PDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU
SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME BREEZIER SATURDAY AND LOOK TO BE ELEVATED
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THRU
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR THOUGH PWATS LOOK
TO BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
BUILDUPS IN THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND IN
AND NEAR ELKO COUNTY. INSTANCES OF VIRGA ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY FROM ROUGHLY JARBIDGE TO JACKPOT WITH
PROBABILITIES RESIDING AT 15% OR LESS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES RESIDE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AMPLIFYING OVER THE SW CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE OPENS THE REGION UP TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THREATENING SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AROUND THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY
MORNING AND BEGINS TO PUSH ITS AXIS INTO NV BY SUNDAY EVENING.
UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT A JET STREAK IN THE TROUGH
AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITERIA LEVEL WIND GUSTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THROUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS.
MONDAY THE ULT WILL AMPLIFY AND ELONGATE OVER OR AND NORTHERN CA
DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO NEVADA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THE RETURN OF CRITERIA
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME CAPE JUST EXIST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NV MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH PW VALUES BELOW
0.5 INCHES NOTHING MORE THAN CU TOWERS IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICT A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER
NORTHERN NV LATER MONDAY EVENING WITH CWA WIDE COVERAGE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD FOR THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES ITS AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE. THE LPC POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN NV TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE
A RAIN EVENT FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAK AND RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ARE
IN THE 0.1-0.25 INCH RANGE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAD FORECASTED. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ITS SLOW PROGRESSION MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z ON WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL
FLOW WILL HELP TO RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM CONDITIONS. NO
PRECIPITATION OR WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND MUCH WARMER THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW,
AROUND 15% OR LESS, AND ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF
FWZS 438, 469, AND 470. PWATS LOOK TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
INSTANCES OF VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH CAN CAUSE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY LOCALIZED WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/99/99/92
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