957
FXUS65 KLKN 080745
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1245 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD
WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SILVER STATE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND TEN
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT FIFTEEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RECORD TYING WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN WINNEMUCCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN WINNEMUCCA
ON MAY 9TH IS 87 DEGREES, SET IN 1940 AND LAST RECORDED IN 1960.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WINNEMUCCA DATE BACK TO 1877. NEAR RECORD
WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED IN EUREKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN EUREKA ON MAY 9TH IS 83
DEGREES, SET IN 2012 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2018. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT EUREKA DATE BACK TO 1963. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY, MAY 9TH, 2025:
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 90%
WINNEMUCCA - 85%
CRESCENT VALLEY - 75%
CARLIN - 65%
DENIO - 55%
MCDERMITT - 55%
GABBS - 55%
ELKO - 40%
TONOPAH - 40%
EUREKA - 15%
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIED OVER THE SW CONUS DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY. THE WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY COURSE IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED HPC TO
THE EAST, AND THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 80S THREATENING SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AROUND
THE REGION.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ITS AXIS CLOSER TO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY,
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD
TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY. REINFORCED BY A JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THE
ULT'S AXIS, WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
CRITERIA LEVEL AT 50-55 MPH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE AXIS STILL JUST WEST OF
THE AREA ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED WITH WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAY VALUES.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NV
WHERE PRECIPITATION INITIATES BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AHEAD AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY. AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM TEMPERATURES, THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
AND PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE 0.10-0.20 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-80. SNOW LEVELS DO FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET
TUESDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY, BUT MOST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. NORTHERLY FLOW IS SHORT LIVED AS ZONAL FLOW IN THE AXIS OF
THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER OR AND NORTHERN
CA BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ALONG SAID ZONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS CONSIDERABLE WITH THIS WAVE
PERTAINING TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GFS OUTPUT HAS CONSIDER
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LARGER ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNT, WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL080 TO FL200 WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
FIRE WEATHER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS
ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE CONCEIVABLE SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED SUNDAY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
87/99/90/87
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