795
FXUS65 KLKN 082151
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THRU SATURDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD READINGS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME BREEZIER SATURDAY AS
WELL AND LOOK TO BE ELEVATED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UNDER
A SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. PROGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES JUST SHY OF BEING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA ARE EXPECTED.
INSTANCES OF VIRGA ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH CAN CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE THE MOST NOTABLE ITEM WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES READING
AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS TO BE BROKEN AT TWO OF THE
FIVE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY, THOSE BEING EUREKA AND
WINNEMUCCA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER NEVADA FOR
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR BREEZES AND TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE RECORD HEIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S, AIDED BY THE UPPER FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHAKES THINGS UP FOR
SUNDAY. THE STRONG UPPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MIX DOWN AND CAUSE
STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOME PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO INITIATE
IN FAR NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY, BUT POPS LOOK WEAK (<30%) AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE BASICALLY NONEXISTENT. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO EXPAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE 70S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO RETURN TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH POPS MAX OUT AROUND 40% AND
ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKE EFFECTIVELY NOTHING AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MORE FULLY FOR THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU SATURDAY
AND WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES READING 15 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. THIS WILL BRING RECORD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENING ALONG
THE COAST. EVEN STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY THAT CURRENTLY LOOK TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER) WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND REMAINING ELEVATED THRU THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH WINDS CURRENTLY DON'T LOOK TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY AS ALLUDED TO. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH THE
MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING UNSETTLED THRU MOST OF
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/94/94/92
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