589
FXUS65 KLKN 271043
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
343 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY AND EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
* LOOK FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS WELL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ELKO, EUREKA,AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
* WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. FOR TODAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS UTAH. THE
REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN COVERAGE AS CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 TO
400 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS IN NORTHERN
NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM CAN PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45
MPH TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. PARTIAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. FOR TOMORROW THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATING OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ONCE AGAIN, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.
CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 100 TO 500J/KG ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING DURING
THE NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM A DEEP LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVES THRU THE PACNW, KNOCKING DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE RELEGATED IN AND NEAR THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS.
CONCURRENTLY, A MODEST CLOSED LOW RESIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOCAL/BAJA AREA. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS LIKELY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. MAIN ITEM OF NOTE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK,
THRU SATURDAY, IS WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DAILY DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGHS
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE 90S.
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF SOCAL/BAJA
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST SUNDAY, BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT ARE CONCURRENTLY INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME
AS WELL. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS LOOK TO DEEPEN THE TROF AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS INDICATED TO FORM
OVER NEVADA IN THE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BRING GREATER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
CURRENTLY PROGGED AROUND 0.75 INCH. PAIRED WITH FORCING ALONG A
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN ACTIVE COLD FRONT, WIDER-SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WETTING RAINS, ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH, SEEM
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SET UP. IN
FACT, ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.50 INCH FOR MOST VALLEYS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WITH CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY DRIER TO THE WEST. A BIG COOL DOWN WILL ALSO OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AS THE COOLER AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NBM IS
GOOD WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION IS POOR AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KEKO AND EAST OF KELY.
KENV HAS VCTS FROM TUE 21Z THROUGH WED 04Z. ANY STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. STORMS DIMINISH BY THE MID- EVENING
HOURS, WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT
100 TO 400 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 WILL HELP PROMOTE
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 0.40
TO 0.50 INCHES TODAY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OVER FIRE ZONE 425, AS WELL AS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF 438, 469, AND 470. CLOUD BASES IN THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT AGL AND ALTHOUGH 700-500MB STORM
MOTION WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AND
WILL BE SPINNING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS WILL HELP
TO BUILD A LITTLE WARMTH UNDER THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS WARMING A FEW
DEGREES OVER TUESDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GO ANY WHERE AND REMAIN AROUND 0.40 TO 0.50 INCHES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE SLOW AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY. EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER 425, 438, 469, 470 AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
424. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/92
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...86
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